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Should Forecasters Use Real‐Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence

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  • Katja Heinisch
  • Rolf Scheufele

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real‐time or latest‐available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed‐frequency models and real‐time data to reassess the role of surveys and financial data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real‐time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when obtaining the optimal combination of soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the role of survey information.

Suggested Citation

  • Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Should Forecasters Use Real‐Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 170-200, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:20:y:2019:i:4:p:e170-e200
    DOI: 10.1111/geer.12163
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    2. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas & Irena Pekarskiene, 2024. "Future directions in nowcasting economic activity: A systematic literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1199-1233, September.
    3. Grimme, Christian & Lehmann, Robert & Noeller, Marvin, 2021. "Forecasting imports with information from abroad," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 109-117.
    4. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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