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The New ifo Business Climate Index for Germany

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  • Stefan Sauer
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

The ifo Business Climate Index is the most important early indicator for developments in the German economy. It aggregates thousands of responses from the companies surveyed in the ifo business surveys on a monthly basis. This article presents the new ifo Business Climate for Germany, which will appear on a monthly basis as of April 2018, replacing the index for German industry and trade that has been published to date. A few major changes have been made to the new business climate index. The most important change is that in addition to manufacturing, construction and both distributions sectors, it now includes the service industry, which has been published separately to date. Moreover, the aggregation procedure has been slightly modified, and finally the base year for index calculation has been adjusted from 2005 to 2015. This article offers an insight into the background to these adjustments and shows that the basic economic forecasts and interpretations remain unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "The New ifo Business Climate Index for Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(07), pages 54-60, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:07:p:54-60
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Mittnik & Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "The Micro Dynamics of Macro Announcements," CESifo Working Paper Series 4421, CESifo.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Forecasting qualities of the Ifo Business Climate Index - a look at recent studies," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    3. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "Handbuch der umfragebasierten Konjunkturforschung," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 15.
    4. Stefan Mittnik & Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "What Moves the DAX?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(23), pages 32-36, December.
    5. Klaus Wohlrabe & Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, 2014. "Ifo Business Survey of the Service Sector – Background, Explanations and Performance," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(21), pages 47-53, November.
    6. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "The Ifo Business Climate and the German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    7. Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Interpreting the ifo Business Climate Correctly as a Leading Economic Indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 42-46, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zeno Enders & Franziska Hünnekes & Gernot Müller, 2022. "Firm Expectations and Economic Activity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2396-2439.
    2. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Menkhoff, Manuel & Müller, Gernot & Niemann, Knut, 2022. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," CEPR Discussion Papers 17768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Michael Weber, 2019. "Mehr Dienstleister im ifo Geschäftsklimaindex," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 26(01), pages 20-22, February.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2020. "Economic Business Cycle 2019: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 51-57, January.
    5. Przemyslaw Brandt & Katrin Demmelhuber & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "The effect of dispatch methods on a recruiting campaign for a business survey: evidence from Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13), pages 1141-1144, July.
    6. Michael Berlemann & Vera Jahn & Robert Lehmann, 2018. "Ways Out of the Empirical Mittelstand Research Dilemma," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(23), pages 22-28, December.
    7. Simon Litsche & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Business Surveys in Focus: Coronavirus Crisis Strikes German Economy with Full Fury," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(05), pages 57-61, May.
    8. Virla, Leonardo Quero, 2021. "An empirical characterization of volatility dynamics in the DAX," IPE Working Papers 167/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    9. Leonardo Quero Virla, 2023. "An empirical characterization of volatility in the German stock market," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-19, July.
    10. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "Das neue ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(09), pages 34-36, May.
    11. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif, 2021. "Predicting the German Economy: Headline Survey Indices Under Test," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 215-232, November.
    12. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    13. Klaus Borger & Stefan Sauer, 2019. "KfW-ifo-Mittelstandsbarometer: Unterkühlte Stimmung im Mittelstand," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(18), pages 49-51, September.
    14. Artem Marjenko & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Die neue Kredithürde: Hintergründe und Ergebnisse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(18), pages 46-48, September.
    15. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Business Cycle 2018: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.
    16. Johanna Garnitz & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Weltweite Prognosen des Bruttoinlandsprodukts mit Hilfe der Indikatoren des ifo World Economic Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(15), pages 36-39, August.
    17. Dorine Boumans & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Expected effects of the US tax reform on other countries: global and local survey evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1608-1630, December.
    18. Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021. "Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
    19. Jonas Hennrich & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2023. "Who Reports the Mood in German Boardrooms? Evidence from the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 10571, CESifo.
    20. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    21. Axel Pols & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "The Bitkom-ifo Digital Index: A New Indicator for the Economic Development of the Digital Economy in Germany," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(03), pages 31-32, October.
    22. Fabian Stephany & Leonie Neuhäuser & Niklas Stoehr & Philipp Darius & Ole Teutloff & Fabian Braesemann, 2022. "The CoRisk-Index: a data-mining approach to identify industry-specific risk perceptions related to Covid-19," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    23. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Business Survey in Focus: German Economy in Coronavirus Shock," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 44-47, April.
    24. Stefan Sauer & Michael Weber & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "Das neue ifo Geschäftsklima Ostdeutschland und Sachsen: Hintergründe und Anpassungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 25(03), pages 20-24, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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