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Weltweite Prognosen des Bruttoinlandsprodukts mit Hilfe der Indikatoren des ifo World Economic Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Johanna Garnitz
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Verwendet man die drei zentralen Indikatoren des ifo World Economic Survey (WES), um das Wachstum des preisbereinigten Bruttoinlandsprodukts in 44 Ländern und drei Ländergruppen zu prognostizieren, kristallisieren sich zwei wesentliche Ergebnisse heraus. Erstens generieren Prognosemodelle, die einen WES-Indikator enthalten, für drei Viertel der hier betrachteten Länder und Ländergruppen geringere Prognosefehler als ein Benchmark-Modell. Und zweitens sind entweder das Wirtschaftsklima oder die Konjunkturerwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate der dafür am besten geeignete WES-Indikator. Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Wirtschaftslage spielt für die Prognose des preisbereinigten Bruttoinlandsprodukts nur eine untergeordnete Rolle.

Suggested Citation

  • Johanna Garnitz & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Weltweite Prognosen des Bruttoinlandsprodukts mit Hilfe der Indikatoren des ifo World Economic Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(15), pages 36-39, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:15:p:36-39
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evgenia Kudymowa & Johanna Garnitz & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Ifo World Economic Survey und die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in ausgewählten Ländern," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(19), pages 23-30, October.
    2. Boumans Dorine & Garnitz Johanna, 2017. "Ifo World Economic Survey Database – An International Economic Expert Survey," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(1), pages 71-80, February.
    3. Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 51(54), pages 5802-5816.
    4. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "Das neue ifo Geschäftsklima Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(07), pages 54-60, April.
    5. Stefan Sauer & Michael Weber & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "Das neue ifo Geschäftsklima Ostdeutschland und Sachsen: Hintergründe und Anpassungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 25(03), pages 20-24, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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