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Forecasting GDP all over the World: Evidence from Comprehensive Survey Data

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  • Garnitz, Johanna
  • Lehmann, Robert
  • Wohlrabe, Klaus

Abstract

Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and fast available source of leading indicators, the World Economic Survey (WES) conducted by the ifo Institute, to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries and three country aggregates separately. We come up with three major results. First, for 35 countries as well as the three aggregates a model containing one of the major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to an autoregressive benchmark model. Second, the most important WES indicators are either the economic climate or the expectations on future economic development for the next six months. And last, 70% of all country-specific models contain WES information from at least one of the main trading partners. Thus, by allowing WES indicators from economic important partners to forecast GDP of the country under consideration, increases forecast accuracy.

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  • Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2017. "Forecasting GDP all over the World: Evidence from Comprehensive Survey Data," MPRA Paper 81772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81772
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    Cited by:

    1. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    2. Deimante Teresiene & Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Yiyi Liao & Rasa Kanapickiene & Ruihui Pu & Siyan Hu & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    3. Abdullah Ghazo, 2021. "Applying the ARIMA Model to the Process of Forecasting GDP and CPI in the Jordanian Economy," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 70-77, May.
    4. Dorine Boumans & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Expected effects of the US tax reform on other countries: global and local survey evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1608-1630, December.
    5. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2024. "What Is Behind the ifo Business Climate? Evidence from a Meta-Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 11482, CESifo.
    6. Lu, Fei & Zeng, Qing & Bouri, Elie & Tao, Ying, 2024. "Forecasting US GDP growth rates in a rich environment of macroeconomic data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Jack Fosten & Shaoni Nandi, 2023. "Nowcasting from cross‐sectionally dependent panels," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 898-919, September.
    8. Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2020. "Economic forecasting with evolved confidence indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 576-585.
    9. María Alejandra Hernández-Montes & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Jonathan Alexander Muñoz-Martínez, 2022. "Aporte de las expectativas de empresarios al pronóstico de las variables macroeconómicas," Borradores de Economia 1202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Johanna Garnitz & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Weltweite Prognosen des Bruttoinlandsprodukts mit Hilfe der Indikatoren des ifo World Economic Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(15), pages 36-39, August.
    11. Kleyton da Costa & Felipe Leite Coelho da Silva & Josiane da Silva Cordeiro Coelho & Andr'e de Melo Modenesi, 2020. "A Systematic Comparison of Forecasting for Gross Domestic Product in an Emergent Economy," Papers 2010.13259, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    12. Dorine Boumans & Henrik Müller & Stefan Sauer, 2022. "How Media Content Influences Economic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Expert Survey," ifo Working Paper Series 380, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88, September.
    14. Krüger, Jens J., 2024. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 149438, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    15. Byron Botha & Tim Olds & Geordie Reid & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2021. "Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 526-554, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    World Economic Survey; Economic Climate; Forecasting GDP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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