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An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts


  • Jordi Pons-Novell


This article undertakes an analysis of the forecasts included in the Panel of Spanish Forecasts in order to highlight the fact that the predictions made and the errors committed by the entities participating on this panel contain information that is particularly useful in analysing the evolution of the Spanish economy. Here, a study is undertaken of the GDP growth forecasts for the Spanish economy for the period 2000 to 2002 made in distinct forecast time horizons. Specifically, it analyses whether the forecasts are optimistic or pessimistic and whether new information concerning the variable being predicted is used efficiently in revising earlier forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordi Pons-Novell, 2006. "An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1287-1292.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:11:p:1287-1292
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500399917

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Masahiro Ashiya, 2003. "The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 331-333.
    2. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    3. Loffler, Gunter, 1998. "Biases in analyst forecasts: cognitive, strategic or second-best?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 261-275, June.
    4. Frederick Joutz & H. O. Stekler, 1998. "Data revisions and forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1011-1016.
    5. Tilman Ehrbeck & Robert Waldmann, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40.
    6. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2003. "Testing the rationality of Japanese GDP forecasts: the sign of forecast revision matters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 263-269, February.
    7. Gregory, Allan W. & Yetman, James, 2004. "The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 461-473.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2017. "Forecasting GDP all over the World: Evidence from Comprehensive Survey Data," MPRA Paper 81772, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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