On the herding instinct of interest rate forecasters
It is not uncommon to observe the published forecasts of economic commentators closely bunched together over long periods of time. In our case, the phenomenon is observed for eight national panels of economists who report monthly forecasts. A framework is developed that conveniently nests within it several simple, yet plausible forecasting rules, and allows us to explore the extent of the clustering phenomenon.
Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Note:||received: June 1999/Final version received: February 2001|
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