The formation of experts' expectations on labour markets : do they run with the pack?
"Expectations regarding the economic development might be correlated due to various reasons: because individuals use the same public information and similar evaluation methods, and because of social learning or herding amongst peers. We analyse to what extent expectations are driven by herd behaviour, and if it contributes to make expectations more realistic. In a novel survey the CEOs of the local departments of the German Federal Employment Agency report their expectations on unemployment in the short run. In this data we can discriminate between close and less-close peers to overcome the reflection problem and to quantitatively assess answers regarding the initial questions. We find strong evidence for herding in expectation formation. The size of effect is robust across various specifications and remains even when controlling for forecasts from experts external to the survey. The social multiplier approximately doubles the effect of information (signals) included in the model. Compared to counterfactual expectations without herding constructed from the estimates, herding seems to improve the accuracy of the expectations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
|Date of creation:||22 Oct 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Regensburger Str. 104, D-90327 Nürnberg|
Web page: http://www.iab.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- M. Mayor-Fernández & R. Patuelli, 2012.
"Short-Run Regional Forecasts: Spatial Models through Varying Cross-Sectional and Temporal Dimensions,"
wp835, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Matías Mayor & Roberto Patuelli, 2012. "Short-Run Regional Forecasts: Spatial Models through Varying Cross-Sectional and Temporal Dimensions," Working Paper Series 15_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Oct 2012.
- Adriaan R. Soetevent, 2006. "Empirics of the Identification of Social Interactions; An Evaluation of the Approaches and Their Results ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 193-228, 04.
- J. Barkley Rosser, 2009. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
- Bogaçhan Çelen & Shachar Kariv, 2004. "Distinguishing Informational Cascades from Herd Behavior in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 484-498, June.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2003.
"Multinomial Choice with Social Interactions,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lamont, Owen A., 2002.
"Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2001.
"Discrete Choice with Social Interactions,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 235-260.
- Harry H. Kelejian & Ingmar R. Prucha, 1997.
"A Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances,"
Electronic Working Papers
97-002, University of Maryland, Department of Economics, revised Aug 1997.
- Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
- Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
- Yann Bramoullé & Habiba Djebbari & Bernard Fortin, 2007.
"Identification of Peer Effects through Social Networks,"
Cahiers de recherche
- Bramoullé, Yann & Djebbari, Habiba & Fortin, Bernard, 2009. "Identification of peer effects through social networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 41-55, May.
- Bramoullé, Yann & Djebbari, Habiba & Fortin, Bernard, 2007. "Identification of Peer Effects through Social Networks," IZA Discussion Papers 2652, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Tortorice Daniel Louis, 2012.
"Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, January.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
- Ronald Bewley & Denzil G. Fiebig, 2002. "On the herding instinct of interest rate forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 403-425.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
- Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
- Badi H. Baltagi, 2006.
"Random effects and Spatial Autocorrelations with Equal Weights,"
Center for Policy Research Working Papers
89, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Baltagi, Badi H., 2006. "Random Effects And Spatial Autocorrelation With Equal Weights," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(05), pages 973-984, October.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010.
"A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1193, David K. Levine.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001.
"The Strategy of Professional Forecasting,"
01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Norbert Schanne, 2011. "Forecasting Regional Labour Markets with GVAR Models and Indicators (refereed paper)," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1044, European Regional Science Association.
- Steve Gibbons & Henry G. Overman, 2010.
"Mostly pointless spatial econometrics?,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
33559, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Schanne, N. & Wapler, R. & Weyh, A., 2010.
"Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 908-926, October.
- Schanne, Norbert & Wapler, Rüdiger & Weyh, Antje, 2008. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," IAB Discussion Paper 200828, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Hampel, Katharina & Kunz, Marcus & Schanne, Norbert & Wapler, Rüdiger & Weyh, Antje, 2007. "Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," IAB Discussion Paper 200702, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Jan Mutl & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2011.
"The Hausman test in a Cliff and Ord panel model,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 48-76, February.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
- Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "What do professional forecasters' stock market expectations tell us about herding, information extraction and beauty contests?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-129.
- Xiaokun Wang & Kara M. Kockelman, 2009. "Baysian Inference For Ordered Response Data With A Dynamic Spatial-Ordered Probit Model," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 877-913.
- Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988.
"Herd behavior and investment,"
WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
- Patrick Bajari & John Krainer, 2004. "An Empirical Model of Stock Analysts' Recommendations: Market Fundamentals, Conflicts of Interest, and Peer Effects," NBER Working Papers 10665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard T. Curtin, 2003. "Unemployment Expectations: The Impact of Private Information on Income Uncertainty," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(4), pages 539-554, December.
- Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521530927, June.
- Hey, John D., 1994. "Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or ...?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 329-349, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
- Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521824019, June.
- Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
- Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Social Learning from Private Experiences: The Dynamics of the Selection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 443-458.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201225. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IAB, Geschäftsbereich Dokumentation und Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.