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A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses : applying a trend-cycle decomposition to unemployment

Author

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  • Fuchs, Johann

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weber, Enzo

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a (stochastic) trend and a cyclical part and to estimate the influence of these components on labor participation. The persistent trend component of unemployment, which triggers permanent reactions of the workers, is likely connected to a structural discouragement effect. The cyclical component, which reflects more fluctuant changes, can be linked to a shorter-term added worker effect. By splitting up the participation effect of changes in the unemployment rate our analysis differs profoundly from previous studies that present the net of both or only a single effect. For the total working population both a discouragement and an added worker effect were identified. In detailed analyses we find that the former was relevant for older workers, whereas the latter especially concerns prime aged and younger females. As many OECD countries are facing an ageing population as well as rising importance of women in the labor market, these age- and gender-specific results might be of particular interest." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses : applying a trend-cycle decomposition to unemployment," IAB Discussion Paper 201301, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Agbola, F. W., 2005. "Integrating Hidden Unemployment in the Measurement of Unemployment in Selected OECD Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
    2. Benati, Luca, 2001. "Some empirical evidence on the 'discouraged worker' effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 387-395, March.
    3. Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Unemployment and labour-force participation in Sweden," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 205-208, March.
    4. Giuseppe Carone & Declan Costello & Nuria Diez Guardia & Gilles Mourre & Bartosz Przywara & Aino Salomaki, 2005. "The economic impact of ageing populations in the EU25 Member States," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 236, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Lundberg, Shelly, 1985. "The Added Worker Effect," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 11-37, January.
    6. Schmerer, Hans-Jörg, 2012. "Skill-biased labor market reforms and international competitiveness," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-39.
    7. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    8. Damon Clark, 2011. "Do Recessions Keep Students in School? The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Enrolment in Post‐compulsory Education in England," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 523-545, July.
    9. Tano, Doki K., 1993. "The added worker effect : A causality test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 111-117.
    10. Michael Stops, 2014. "Job matching across occupational labour markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 940-958.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2013. "Migration, unemployment, and skill downgrading : a specific-factors approach," IAB Discussion Paper 201313, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Pauser, Johannes, 2013. "Capital mobility, imperfect labour markets, and the provision of public goods," IAB Discussion Paper 201309, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Mönnig, Anke & Zika, Gerd & Maier, Tobias, 2013. "Trade and qualification : linking qualification needs to Germany's export flows," IAB Discussion Paper 201307, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," IAB Discussion Paper 201311, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2013. "Labour market forecasting : is disaggregation useful?," IAB Discussion Paper 201314, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arbeitslosenquote; Konjunkturzyklus; Erwerbsbeteiligung; Erwerbsverhalten; Beschäftigungseffekte; Persistenz; stille Reserve; Erwerbsquote; Erwerbsbevölkerung; geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren; altersspezifische Faktoren;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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