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Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model

Author

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  • Fuchs, Johann

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weber, Brigitte

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weber, Enzo

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by bootstrapping. This allows fully integrated simulations and the possibility to illustrate the uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals. Our new forecast confirms the results from former studies. We conclude that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model," IAB Discussion Paper 201701, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201701
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elke Holst & Jürgen Schupp, 2000. "Stille Reserve wichtig für die Arbeitsmarktflexibilität in Deutschland," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 67(29), pages 457-465.
    2. Agbola, F. W., 2005. "Integrating Hidden Unemployment in the Measurement of Unemployment in Selected OECD Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
    3. O'Hare, Colin & Li, Youwei, 2014. "Identifying structural breaks in stochastic mortality models," MPRA Paper 62994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-272, October.
    5. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kruppe, Thomas & Trepesch, Merlind, 2017. "Weiterbildungsbeteiligung in Deutschland : Auswertungen mit den Daten der Erwachsenenbefragung des Nationalen Bildungspanels "Bildung im Erwachsenenalter und lebenslanges Lernen"," IAB Discussion Paper 201716, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arbeitsmarktprognose; Bevölkerungsprognose; Arbeitskräfteangebot; Prognosemodell; Stochastik; Erwerbsquote; Einwanderung; Geburtenentwicklung; Erwerbsbeteiligung; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial;

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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