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Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model

Listed author(s):
  • Fuchs, Johann

    ()

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    ()

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weber, Brigitte

    ()

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weber, Enzo

    ()

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

"This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by bootstrapping. This allows fully integrated simulations and the possibility to illustrate the uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals. Our new forecast confirms the results from former studies. We conclude that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 201701.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jan 2017
Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201701
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  1. Elke Holst & Jürgen Schupp, 2000. "Stille Reserve wichtig für die Arbeitsmarktflexibilität in Deutschland," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 67(29), pages 457-465.
  2. Agbola, F. W., 2005. "Integrating Hidden Unemployment in the Measurement of Unemployment in Selected OECD Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
  3. Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-272, October.
  4. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
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