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Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Brigitte

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by bootstrapping. This allows fully integrated simulations and the possibility to illustrate the uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals. Our new forecast confirms the results from former studies. We conclude that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model," IAB-Discussion Paper 201701, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Fuchs, Johann & Kubis, Alexander & Schneider, Lutz, 2016. "Replacement migration from a labour market perspective : Germany's long-term potential labour force and immigration from non-EU member countries," IAB-Discussion Paper 201604, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Johann Fuchs & Enzo Weber, 2013. "A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses: applying a trend--cycle decomposition to unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1374-1378, October.
    8. Agbola, F. W., 2005. "Integrating Hidden Unemployment in the Measurement of Unemployment in Selected OECD Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
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    10. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
    11. Vanella, Patrizio, 2016. "The Total Fertility Rate in Germany until 2040 - A Stochastic Principal Components Projection based on Age-specific Fertility Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-579, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vanella, Patrizio, 2017. "Age- and Sex-Specific Fertility in Germany until the Year 2040 - The Impact of International Migration," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-606, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    2. Vanella, Patrizio & Deschermeier, Philipp, 2017. "Ein stochastisches Prognosemodell internationaler Migration in Deutschland," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-605, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. Konle-Seidl, Regina, 2017. "Retention and re-integration of older workers into the labour market: What works?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201717, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Kruppe, Thomas & Trepesch, Merlind, 2017. "Weiterbildungsbeteiligung in Deutschland : Auswertungen mit den Daten der Erwachsenenbefragung des Nationalen Bildungspanels "Bildung im Erwachsenenalter und lebenslanges Lernen"," IAB-Discussion Paper 201716, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Zika, Gerd & Schneemann, Christian & Hummel, Markus & Maier, Tobias & Kalinowski, Michael & Bernardt, Florian & Mönnig, Anke & Parton, Frederik & Sonnenburg, Anja & Ulrich, Philip & Wolter, Marc Ingo, 2020. "Langfristige Folgen von Demografie und Strukturwandel für regionale Arbeitsmärkte : Daten, Methoden und Ergebnisse der 5. Welle der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202001, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Promberger, Markus, 2017. "Resilience among vulnerable households in Europe : Questions, concept, findings and implications," IAB-Discussion Paper 201712, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Tobias Maier & Anke Mönnig & Gerd Zika, 2021. "Folgen der COVID-19-Krise auf die kurz-, mittel- und langfristigen Beschäftigungs- und Entlohnungschancen nach Berufen [Consequences of the COVID-19 crisis on short-, medium- and long-term employme," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 15(2), pages 107-138, June.
    8. Dauth, Christine & Lang, Julia, 2017. "Should the unemployed care for the elderly? : The effect of subsidized occupational and further training in elderly care," IAB-Discussion Paper 201713, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte, 2021. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Demografische Entwicklung lässt das Arbeitskräfteangebot stark schrumpfen (Projection of the labor force potential up to 2060: Demographic developmen," IAB-Kurzbericht 202125, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Bevölkerungsprognose ; Einwanderung ; Erwerbsbeteiligung ; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial ; Erwerbsquote ; Geburtenentwicklung ; Prognosemodell ; Stochastik ; Arbeitskräfteangebot ; Arbeitsmarktprognose ; 1959-2060;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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