Langfristige Folgen von Demografie und Strukturwandel für regionale Arbeitsmärkte : Daten, Methoden und Ergebnisse der 5. Welle der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen

"Since 2010, the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), in cooperation with the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS), have been producing a basic projection every two years on the long-term development of the demand for and supply of labour according to qualifications and occupations (www.QuBe-Projekt.de). Based on the results of the fifth wave of BIBB-IAB qualification and occupation projections (2018) two regional differentiations are made. Firstly, the supply and demand of labour are differentiated according to 16 federal states. On the other hand, the districts are grouped into 34 labour market regions according to their commuter integration. These labour market regions represent homogeneous labour markets and are therefore particularly suitable for identifying regional segmentations. In this paper we describe the data and methods for the projection of labour supply and demand by federal states, labour market regions and the results of the QuBe basic projection at the federal state level. The results at the level of the labour market regions were published separately as part of a research project of the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. The projection of the labour supply by federal states shows that the number of labour force in Southern Germany and in the city-states will increase in the future, while the number of gainfully employed persons is declining especially in the Eastern federal states and in Saarland. The development of the labour force is strongly related to the supply of labour. Particular in Eastern Germany, the decline in the supply of labour has a restrictive effect on the development of the workforce. On the other hand in Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, Hessen, Berlin and Hamburg the demand for employed persons will increase until 2035. The change in the sector structure can be seen above all in the decline in the manufacturing industry in all federal states and the growth in the number of employees in the health and social sectors. The particularly sharp decline in the share of manufacturing industry in the East (except Berlin) is characterised by a strong decline in the construction industry, which is characterised by the declining population there. The shortage of labour in the eastern federal states (except Berlin) as well as in Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saarland is leading to a decline in the unemployment rate. However, declining unemployment rates do not necessarily mean that the labour market situation improves for all potential job seekers. Only in the 'health professions', with the exception of Berlin, do skilled labour bottlenecks become apparent in all federal states. This becomes particularly clear when the skilled labour situation in the Eastern federal states is considered. Due to the lower supply of unqualified workers the labour supply for assistance in the service occupations is comparatively more scarce than for skilled occupations." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)