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Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Demografische Entwicklung lässt das Arbeitskräfteangebot stark schrumpfen (Projection of the labor force potential up to 2060: Demographic development causes labor supply to shrink sharply)

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Brigitte

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"In the long term, demographic developments in Germany will lead to a decline in the number of people of working age and thus also in the potential labor force. Higher labor force participation by women and, above all, by older people can only mitigate this trend. Immigration from abroad strengthens the demographic base, but is not necessarily sufficient to fully compensate for the demographic effect. As in previous projections of the labor force potential, several projection variants are calculated to show the impact of migration. We discuss two variants in more detail: a variant derived from a stochastic forecast model and a variant with extremely high migration, in which the labor force potential would remain roughly constant in the long term. A sensitivity analysis supplements the analysis with the question of what effects could result from significantly higher increases in labor force participation rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte, 2021. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Demografische Entwicklung lässt das Arbeitskräfteangebot stark schrumpfen (Projection of the labor force potential up to 2060: Demographic developmen," IAB-Kurzbericht 202125, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2021. "Neue Schätzungen für die Stille Reserve - erstmalig Anwendung des IAB-Konzepts auf Gesamtdeutschland," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202106, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2006. "Effekte alternativer Annahmen auf die prognostizierte Erwerbsbevölkerung," IAB-Discussion Paper 200619, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model," IAB-Discussion Paper 201701, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Bauer, Anja & Fuchs, Johann & Gartner, Hermann & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Wanger, Susanne & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2021. "IAB-Prognose: Arbeitsmarkt auf dem Weg aus der Krise," IAB-Kurzbericht 202106, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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