IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabdpa/201314.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labour market forecasting : is disaggregation useful?

Author

Listed:
  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Zika, Gerd

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"Using the example of short-term forecasts for German employment figures, the article at hand examines the question whether the use of disaggregated information increases the forecast accuracy of the aggregate. For this purpose, the out-of-sample forecasts for the aggregated employment forecast are compared to and contrasted with forecasts based on a vector-autoregressive model, which includes not only the aggregate but also the numbers of gainfully employed people at the industry level. The Clark/West test is used in the model comparison. It becomes evident that disaggregation significantly improves the employment forecast. Moreover, fluctuation- window tests help identify the phases during which disaggregation increases forecast accuracy to the strongest extent." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2013. "Labour market forecasting : is disaggregation useful?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201314, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201314
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2013/dp1413.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zabel, Cordula, 2013. "Effects of participating in skill training and workfare on employment entries for lone mothers receiving means-tested benefits in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201303, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Bauer, Anja, 2013. "Mismatch unemployment : evidence from Germany 2000-2010," IAB-Discussion Paper 201310, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "Model Comparisons In Unstable Environments," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 369-392, May.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
    5. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," IAB-Discussion Paper 201311, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    7. Osiander, Christopher, 2012. "Determinanten der Weiterbildungsbereitschaft gering qualifizierter Arbeitsloser," IAB-Discussion Paper 201229, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
    9. Johann Fuchs & Enzo Weber, 2013. "A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses: applying a trend--cycle decomposition to unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1374-1378, October.
    10. Eggs, Johannes, 2013. "Unemployment benefit II, unemployment and health," IAB-Discussion Paper 201312, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 25-44, February.
    12. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    13. Pauser, Johannes, 2013. "Capital mobility, imperfect labour markets, and the provision of public goods," IAB-Discussion Paper 201309, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    14. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
    15. Stephani, Jens, 2013. "Does it matter where you work? : employer characteristics and the wage growth of low-wage workers and higher-wage workers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201304, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Moczall, Andreas, 2013. "Subsidies for substitutes? : New evidence on deadweight loss and substitution effects of a wage subsidy for hard-to-place job-seekers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201305, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    17. Michael Stops, 2014. "Job matching across occupational labour markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 940-958.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    3. Robert Lehmann, 2021. "Forecasting exports across Europe: What are the superior survey indicators?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2429-2453, May.
    4. R. Lehmann & K. Wohlrabe, 2017. "Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 279-283, February.
    5. Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 51(54), pages 5802-5816.
    6. Schwengler, Barbara, 2013. "Einfluss der europäischen Regionalpolitik auf die deutsche Regionalförderung," IAB-Discussion Paper 201318, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 34(1), pages 61-90, February.
    8. Bauer, Angela & Kruppe, Thomas, 2013. "Policy Styles : zur Genese des Politikstilkonzepts und dessen Einbindung in Evaluationsstudien," IAB-Discussion Paper 201322, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," IAB-Discussion Paper 201311, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2015. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
    3. Pauser, Johannes, 2013. "Capital mobility, imperfect labour markets, and the provision of public goods," IAB-Discussion Paper 201309, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2013. "Migration, unemployment, and skill downgrading : a specific-factors approach," IAB-Discussion Paper 201313, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Mönnig, Anke & Zika, Gerd & Maier, Tobias, 2013. "Trade and qualification : linking qualification needs to Germany's export flows," IAB-Discussion Paper 201307, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Bossler, Mario, 2013. "Recruiting abroad: the role of foreign affinity and labour market scarcity," IAB-Discussion Paper 201319, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    8. Bauer, Angela & Kruppe, Thomas, 2013. "Policy Styles : zur Genese des Politikstilkonzepts und dessen Einbindung in Evaluationsstudien," IAB-Discussion Paper 201322, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Drechsler, Jörg & Kiesl, Hans, 2014. "Beat the heap - an imputation strategy for valid inferences from rounded income data," IAB-Discussion Paper 201402, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Mismatch and the Forecasting Performance of Matching Functions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 101-123, February.
    11. Schwengler, Barbara, 2013. "Einfluss der europäischen Regionalpolitik auf die deutsche Regionalförderung," IAB-Discussion Paper 201318, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Johann Fuchs & Enzo Weber, 2013. "A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses: applying a trend--cycle decomposition to unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1374-1378, October.
    13. Robert Lehmann, 2021. "Forecasting exports across Europe: What are the superior survey indicators?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2429-2453, May.
    14. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
    15. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    16. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
    17. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    18. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function," IAB-Discussion Paper 201416, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    19. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
    20. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2017. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation: A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 515-540, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beschäftigtenzahl ; Methode ; Prognostik ; Arbeitsmarktprognose;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.