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Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function

  • Hutter, Christian


    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weber, Enzo


    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

"This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of time. We investigate whether and to what extent forecasts of German job findings can be improved by a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function. For this purpose, we construct so-called mismatch indicators that reflect regional, occupational and qualification-related mismatch on a monthly basis. In pseudo out-of-sample tests that account for the nested model environment, we find that forecasting models enhanced by the mismatch indicator significantly outperform their benchmark counterparts for all forecast horizons ranging between one month and a year. This is especially pronounced in the aftermath of the Great Recession where a low level of mismatch improved the possibility of unemployed to find a job again." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 201416.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 25 Jun 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201416
Contact details of provider: Postal: Regensburger Str. 104, D-90327 Nürnberg
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  1. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  3. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "Labor search and matching in macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1859-1895, November.
  5. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "Labor Search and Matching in Macroeconomics," IZA Discussion Papers 2743, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
  7. Petrongolo, Barbara & Pissarides, Christopher, 2000. "Looking Into The Black Box: A Survey Of The Matching Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 2409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ebrahimy, Ehsan & Shimer, Robert, 2010. "Stock-flow matching," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(4), pages 1325-1353, July.
  9. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Coles, Melvyn G & Smith, Eric, 1994. "Marketplaces and Matching," CEPR Discussion Papers 1048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 480, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  12. Eran Yashiv, 2007. "Labor Search and Matching in Macroeconomics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0803, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  13. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  14. Maria E. Canon & Mingyu Chen & Elise Marifian, 2013. "Labor mismatch in the Great Recession: a review of indexes using recent U.S. data," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 237-272.
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  16. repec:oup:restud:v:61:y:1994:i:3:p:397-415 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Kang, In-Bong, 2003. "Multi-period forecasting using different models for different horizons: an application to U.S. economic time series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-400.
  18. Eran Yashiv, 2007. "Labor search and matching in macroeconomics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19707, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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