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Forecasting Exports across Europe: What Are the Superior Survey Indicators?

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  • Robert Lehmann

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Abstract

In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four indicators are superior: the Export Climate, the Production Expectations of domestic manufacturing firms, the Industrial Confidence Indicator, and the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Two robustness checks confirm these results. As exports are highly volatile and turn out to be a large demand-side component of gross domestic product, our results can be used by applied forecasters in order to choose the best-performing indicators and thus increasing the accuracy of export forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann, 2019. "Forecasting Exports across Europe: What Are the Superior Survey Indicators?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7846, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7846
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Grimme & Robert Lehmann, 2020. "The ifo Export Climate – A Leading Indicator to Forecast German Export Growth," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(04), pages 36-42, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    export forecasting; export expectations; export climate; Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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