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On the predictive content of production surveys: A pan-European study

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  • Lemmens, Aurelie
  • Croux, Christophe
  • Dekimpe, Marnik G.

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  • Lemmens, Aurelie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2005. "On the predictive content of production surveys: A pan-European study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 363-375.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:2:p:363-375
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Entorf, Horst, 1993. "Constructing leading indicators from non-balanced sectoral business survey series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 211-225.
    3. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 343-357.
    4. Bergstrom, Reinhold, 1995. "The relationship between manufacturing production and different business survey series in Sweden 1968-;1992," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 379-393.
    5. Sapir, Andre, 1998. "The political economy of EC regionalism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 717-732.
    6. William P. Putsis, Jr. & Sridhar Balasubramanian & Edward W. Kaplan & Subrata K. Sen, 1997. "Mixing Behavior in Cross-Country Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, pages 354-369.
    7. Oller, Lars-Erik, 1990. "Forecasting the business cycle using survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 453-461.
    8. Oller, Lars-Erik & Tallbom, Christer, 1996. "Smooth and timely business cycle indicators for noisy Swedish data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 389-402.
    9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    10. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 540-552.
    11. Michael Artis & Wenda Zhang, 1998. "The linkage of interest rates within the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 117-132.
    12. Jonung, Lars, 1986. "Uncertainty about inflationary perceptions and expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, pages 315-325.
    13. Barassi, Marco R. & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G., 2005. "Interest rate linkages: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-284, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:12:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-016-0002-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2004. "Decomposing Granger Causality over the Spectrum," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-102-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    3. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:878-893 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Thomas Lux & Jaba Ghonghadze, 2011. "Modeling the Dynamics of EU Economic Sentiment Indicators: An Interaction-Based Approach," Post-Print hal-00711445, HAL.
    5. Robert Lehmann, 2015. "Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?," ERSA conference papers ersa15p756, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), pages 81-117.
    7. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2007. "Consumer confidence in Europe : United in diversity," Other publications TiSEM ea8c3268-2c0b-4fcc-9d4a-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Javier Jareño, 2007. "Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy," Occasional Papers 0706, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    9. Koen Pauwels & Imran Currim & Marnik Dekimpe & Dominique Hanssens & Natalie Mizik & Eric Ghysels & Prasad Naik, 2004. "Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 167-183, December.
    10. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0416-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing Predictive Content of the KOF Barometer in Real Time," KOF Working papers 10-249, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    12. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Do business tendency surveys help in forecasting employment?: A real-time evidence for Switzerland," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, pages 129-151.
    13. Mansoor Maitah & Daniel Toth & Elena Kuzmenko & Karel Šrédl & Helena Rezbová & Petra Šánová, 2016. "Forecast of Employment in Switzerland: The Macroeconomic View," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, pages 132-138.
    14. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "The European Consumer: United In Diversity?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-022-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    15. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    16. Werner Hölzl & Gerhard Schwarz, 2014. "The "WIFO-Konjunkturtest": Methodology and Forecast Characteristics of the WIFO Business Cycle Survey," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, pages 835-850.
    17. Laivi Laidroo & Zana Grigaliuniene, 2012. "Testing for asymmetries in price reactions to quarterly earnings announcements on Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius Stock Exchanges during 2000-2009," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 61-86, July.
    18. Robert Lehmann, 2015. "Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?," ERSA conference papers ersa15p756, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Tatiana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2017. "The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: Evidence from SIGE," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), pages 75-104.
    20. Sarah Gelper & Aurelie Lemmens & Christophe Croux, 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-11.
    21. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 878-893.
    22. Ghonghadze, Jaba & Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Modeling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach," Kiel Working Papers 1487, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    23. Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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