Report NEP-FOR-2019-10-07

This is the archive for NEP-FOR, a report on new working papers in the area of Forecasting. Rob J Hyndman issued this report. It is usually issued weekly.

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Other reports in NEP-FOR

The following items were announced in this report:

• Laura Garcia-Jorcano & Alfonso Novales, 2019. "A dominance approach for comparing the performance of VaR forecasting models," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-23, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
• Riza Demirer & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2019. "Risk Aversion and the Predictability of Crude Oil Market Volatility: A Forecasting Experiment with Random Forests," Working Papers 201972, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
• Oguzhan Cepni & I. Ethem Guney & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The Role of an Aligned Investor Sentiment Index in Predicting Bond Risk Premia of the United States," Working Papers 201973, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
• Robert Lehmann, 2019. "Forecasting Exports across Europe: What Are the Superior Survey Indicators?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7846, CESifo.
• Fearghal Kearney & Han Lin Shang & Lisa Sheenan, 2019. "Implied volatility surface predictability: the case of commodity markets," Papers 1909.11009, arXiv.org.
• Alfonso Novales & Laura Garcia-Jorcano, 2019. "Backtesting Extreme Value Theory models of expected shortfall," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-24, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
• Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone & Fabio Profumo, 2019. "A Real-time Density Forecast Evaluation of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Discussion Papers 19/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
• Patrick McAllister & Ilir Nase, 2019. "The Accuracy of Consensus Real Estate Forecasts Revisited," ERES eres2019_374, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Laura Garcia-Jorcano & Alfonso Novales, 2019. "Volatility specifications versus probability distributions in VaR forecasting," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-26, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
• Norbert Pfeifer, 2019. "Text-Based Rental Rate Predictions of Airbnb Listings," ERES eres2019_329, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Marcelo Cajias, 2019. "Can a machine understand real estate pricing? – Evaluating machine learning approaches with big data," ERES eres2019_232, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2019. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-52, Swiss Finance Institute.
• Marcelo Cajias & Jonas Willwersch & Felix Lorenz, 2019. "I know where you will invest in the next year – Forecasting real estate investments with machine learning methods," ERES eres2019_171, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
• Daiki Matsunaga & Toyotaro Suzumura & Toshihiro Takahashi, 2019. "Exploring Graph Neural Networks for Stock Market Predictions with Rolling Window Analysis," Papers 1909.10660, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.