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Implied volatility surface predictability: the case of commodity markets

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  • Fearghal Kearney
  • Han Lin Shang
  • Lisa Sheenan

Abstract

Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the financialization of futures markets in the early 2000s, we investigate if these extant models can uncover predictable patterns in the implied volatility surfaces of the most actively traded commodity options between 2006 and 2016. Adopting a rolling out-of-sample forecasting framework that addresses the common multiple comparisons problem, we establish that, for energy and precious metals options, explicitly modeling the term structure of implied volatility using the Nelson-Siegel factors produces the most accurate forecasts.

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  • Fearghal Kearney & Han Lin Shang & Lisa Sheenan, 2019. "Implied volatility surface predictability: the case of commodity markets," Papers 1909.11009, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1909.11009
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    Cited by:

    1. Sudarshan Kumar & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2023. "Harvesting the volatility smile in a large emerging market: A Dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1615-1644, November.
    2. Xiaolan Jia & Xinfeng Ruan & Jin E. Zhang, 2021. "The implied volatility smirk of commodity options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 72-104, January.
    3. Jia, Xiaolan & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2023. "Carr and Wu’s (2020) framework in the oil ETF option market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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