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Estimating Expected Excess Returns Using Historical And Option-Implied Volatility

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  • Charles J. Corrado
  • Thomas W. Miller

Abstract

We test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward-to-risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option-implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994-1998 subperiod. In the 1999-2003 subperiod, the option-implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk-return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994-1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999-2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in the latter subperiod. 2006 The Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles J. Corrado & Thomas W. Miller, 2006. "Estimating Expected Excess Returns Using Historical And Option-Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 95-112.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:29:y:2006:i:1:p:95-112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hui Guo & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2006. "Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1433-1463, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bertrand Maillet & Jean-Philippe Médecin & Thierry Michel, 2009. "High Watermarks of Market Risks," Post-Print halshs-00425585, HAL.
    2. Dror Parnes, 2011. "Developments in corporate creditworthiness around ownership events," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 377-396, September.
    3. Corrado, Charles J. & Jordan, Bradford D. & Miller, Thomas Jr. & Stansfield, John J., 2001. "Repricing and employee stock option valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1059-1082, June.
    4. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George & Tzagkaraki, Emilia, 2008. "Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2401-2411, November.
    5. Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. M�decin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Parnes, Dror, 2007. "Time series patterns in credit ratings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 217-226, December.
    7. Dunis, Christian & Kellard, Neil M. & Snaith, Stuart, 2013. "Forecasting EUR–USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4943-4957.
    8. Kearney, Fearghal & Murphy, Finbarr & Cummins, Mark, 2015. "An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 199-216.

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