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Dynamic functional time-series forecasts of foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces

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  • Han Lin Shang
  • Fearghal Kearney

Abstract

This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal component analysis generally improves out-of-sample forecast accuracy. More specifically, the dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement. Our models lead to multiple instances of statistically significant improvements in forecast accuracy for daily EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY implied volatility surfaces across various maturities, when benchmarked against established methods. A stylised trading strategy is also employed to demonstrate the potential economic benefits of our proposed approach.

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  • Han Lin Shang & Fearghal Kearney, 2021. "Dynamic functional time-series forecasts of foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces," Papers 2107.14026, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14026
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