Functional data analysis for volatility
We introduce a functional volatility process for modeling volatility trajectories for high frequency observations in financial markets and describe functional representations and data-based recovery of the process from repeated observations. A study of its asymptotic properties, as the frequency of observed trades increases, is complemented by simulations and an application to the analysis of intra-day volatility patterns of the S&P 500 index. The proposed volatility model is found to be useful to identify recurring patterns of volatility and for successful prediction of future volatility, through the application of functional regression and prediction techniques.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Howell Tong & Qiwei Yao, 2000. "Nonparametric estimation of ratios of noise to signal in stochastic regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6324, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Alan E.H. Speight & David G. McMillan & Owain ap Gwilym, 2000. "Intra‐day volatility components in FTSE‐100 stock index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 425-444, 05.
- Muller, Hans-Georg & Stadtmuller, Ulrich & Yao, Fang, 2006. "Functional Variance Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1007-1018, September.
- Fang Yao & Hans-Georg Müller & Andrew J. Clifford & Steven R. Dueker & Jennifer Follett & Yumei Lin & Bruce A. Buchholz & John S. Vogel, 2003. "Shrinkage Estimation for Functional Principal Component Scores with Application to the Population Kinetics of Plasma Folate," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 676-685, 09.
- Fan, Jianqing & Wang, Yazhen, 2007. "Multi-Scale Jump and Volatility Analysis for High-Frequency Financial Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1349-1362, December.
- Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005.
"A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
- Lan Zhang & Per A. Mykland & Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2003. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility with Noisy High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 10111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Sanfelici & S. Ogawa, 2008. "An improved two-step regularization scheme for spot volatility estimation," Economics Department Working Papers 2008-ME02, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
- Foster, Dean P & Nelson, Daniel B, 1996. "Continuous Record Asymptotics for Rolling Sample Variance Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 139-174, January.
- Dean P. Foster & Daniel B. Nelson, 1994. "Continuous Record Asymptotics for Rolling Sample Variance Estimators," NBER Technical Working Papers 0163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Federico M. Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 241-283, January.
- Federico M. Bandi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1332, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Mykland, Per A. & Zhang, Lan, 2011. "Ultra high frequency volatility estimation with dependent microstructure noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 160-175, January.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Per A. Mykland & Lan Zhang, 2005. "Ultra High Frequency Volatility Estimation with Dependent Microstructure Noise," NBER Working Papers 11380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Mykland, Per A. & Zhang, Lan, 2005. "Ultra high frequency volatility estimation with dependent microstructure noise," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,30, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Yacine Ait--Sahalia & Per A. Mykland, 2003. "The Effects of Random and Discrete Sampling when Estimating Continuous--Time Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 483-549, March.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Per A. Mykland, 2002. "The Effects of Random and Discrete Sampling When Estimating Continuous-Time Diffusions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
- Stanton, Richard, 1997. " A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1973-2002, December.
- Yao, Fang & Muller, Hans-Georg & Wang, Jane-Ling, 2005. "Functional Data Analysis for Sparse Longitudinal Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 577-590, June.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001.
- Gençay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Muller, Ulrich A. & Pictet, Olivier & Olsen, Richard, 2001. "An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796715.
- Mancino, M.E. & Sanfelici, S., 2008. "Robustness of Fourier estimator of integrated volatility in the presence of microstructure noise," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2966-2989, February.
- Kristensen, Dennis, 2010. "Nonparametric Filtering Of The Realized Spot Volatility: A Kernel-Based Approach," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(01), pages 60-93, February.
- Dennis Kristensen, 2007. "Nonparametric Filtering of the Realised Spot Volatility: A Kernel-based Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2007-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Jianqing Fan & Qiwei Yao, 1998. "Efficient estimation of conditional variance functions in stochastic regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6635, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:165:y:2011:i:2:p:233-245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.