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Intraday forecasts of a volatility index: functional time series methods with dynamic updating

Author

Listed:
  • Han Lin Shang

    (Australian National University)

  • Yang Yang

    (Australian National University)

  • Fearghal Kearney

    (Queen’s University Belfast)

Abstract

As a forward-looking measure of future equity market volatility, the VIX index has gained immense popularity in recent years to become a key measure of risk for market analysts and academics. We consider discrete reported intraday VIX tick values as realisations of a collection of curves observed sequentially on equally spaced and dense grids over time and utilise functional data analysis techniques to produce 1-day-ahead forecasts of these curves. The proposed method facilitates the investigation of dynamic changes in the index over very short time intervals as showcased using the 15-s high-frequency VIX index values. With the help of dynamic updating techniques, our point and interval forecasts are shown to enjoy improved accuracy over conventional time series models.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Lin Shang & Yang Yang & Fearghal Kearney, 2019. "Intraday forecasts of a volatility index: functional time series methods with dynamic updating," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 331-354, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:282:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-018-3108-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-018-3108-4
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    2. Han Lin Shang & Kaiying Ji, 2023. "Forecasting intraday financial time series with sieve bootstrapping and dynamic updating," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 1973-1988, December.
    3. Erdinc Akyildirim & Aurelio F. Bariviera & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ahmet Sensoy, 2022. "Forecasting high-frequency stock returns: a comparison of alternative methods," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 639-690, June.
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    5. Zhenjie Liang & Futian Weng & Yuanting Ma & Yan Xu & Miao Zhu & Cai Yang, 2022. "Measurement and Analysis of High Frequency Assert Volatility Based on Functional Data Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-11, April.
    6. Chen Tang & Yanlin Shi, 2021. "Forecasting High-Dimensional Financial Functional Time Series: An Application to Constituent Stocks in Dow Jones Index," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-13, July.

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