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Functional time series forecasting with dynamic updating: An application to intraday particulate matter concentration

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  • Shang, Han Lin

Abstract

Environmental data often take the form of a collection of curves observed sequentially over time. An example of this includes daily pollution measurement curves describing the concentration of a particulate matter in ambient air. These curves can be viewed as a time series of functions observed at equally spaced intervals over a dense grid. The nature of high-dimensional data poses challenges from a statistical aspect, due to the so-called “curse of dimensionality”, but it also poses opportunities to analyze a rich source of information to better understand dynamic changes at short time intervals. Statistical methods are introduced and compared for forecasting one-day-ahead intraday concentrations of particulate matter; as new data are sequentially observed, dynamic updating methods are proposed to update point and interval forecasts to achieve better accuracy. These forecasting methods are validated through an empirical study of half-hourly concentrations of airborne particulate matter in Graz, Austria.

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  • Shang, Han Lin, 2017. "Functional time series forecasting with dynamic updating: An application to intraday particulate matter concentration," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 184-200.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:1:y:2017:i:c:p:184-200
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2016.08.004
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Martínez-Álvarez & Amandine Schmutz & Gualberto Asencio-Cortés & Julien Jacques, 2018. "A Novel Hybrid Algorithm to Forecast Functional Time Series Based on Pattern Sequence Similarity with Application to Electricity Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Chen, Yichao & Pun, Chi Seng, 2019. "A bootstrap-based KPSS test for functional time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Elías, Antonio & Jiménez, Raúl & Shang, Han Lin, 2022. "On projection methods for functional time series forecasting," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Kokoszka, Piotr & Oja, Hanny & Park, Byeong & Sangalli, Laura, 2017. "Special issue on functional data analysis," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 99-100.
    5. Jiménez Recaredo, Raúl José & Elías Fernández, Antonio, 2017. "Prediction Bands for Functional Data Based on Depth Measures," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24606, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Han Lin Shang & Kaiying Ji & Ufuk Beyaztas, 2021. "Granger causality of bivariate stationary curve time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 626-635, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Block moving; Dynamic updating; Functional principal component regression; Functional linear regression; Maximum entropy bootstrap; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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