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Nonparametric time series forecasting with dynamic updating

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  • Han Lin Shang

    ()

  • Rob J Hyndman

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Abstract

We present a nonparametric method to forecast a seasonal univariate time series, and propose four dynamic updating methods to improve point forecast accuracy. Our methods consider a seasonal univariate time series as a functional time series. We propose first to reduce the dimensionality by applying functional principal component analysis to the historical observations, and then to use univariate time series forecasting and functional principal component regression techniques. When data in the most recent year are partially observed, we improve point forecast accuracy using dynamic updating methods. We also introduce a nonparametric approach to construct prediction intervals of updated forecasts, and compare the empirical coverage probability with an existing parametric method. Our approaches are data-driven and computationally fast, and hence they are feasible to be applied in real time high frequency dynamic updating. The methods are demonstrated using monthly sea surface temperatures from 1950 to 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman, 2009. "Nonparametric time series forecasting with dynamic updating," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2009-8
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2009/wp8-09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    2. Shang, Han Lin & Hyndman, Rob.J., 2011. "Nonparametric time series forecasting with dynamic updating," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1310-1324.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
    4. Preda, C. & Saporta, G., 2005. "Clusterwise PLS regression on a stochastic process," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 99-108, April.
    5. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    6. Philippe C. Besse, 2000. "Autoregressive Forecasting of Some Functional Climatic Variations," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 673-687.
    7. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, May.
    8. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    9. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    10. Dauxois, J. & Pousse, A. & Romain, Y., 1982. "Asymptotic theory for the principal component analysis of a vector random function: Some applications to statistical inference," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 136-154, March.
    11. Aneiros-Pérez, Germán & Vieu, Philippe, 2008. "Nonparametric time series prediction: A semi-functional partial linear modeling," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(5), pages 834-857, May.
    12. Reiss, Philip T. & Ogden, R. Todd, 2007. "Functional Principal Component Regression and Functional Partial Least Squares," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 984-996, September.
    13. Peter Hall & Mohammad Hosseini-Nasab, 2006. "On properties of functional principal components analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(1), pages 109-126.
    14. Preda, C. & Saporta, G., 2005. "PLS regression on a stochastic process," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 149-158, January.
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    16. Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
    17. Haipeng Shen & Jianhua Z. Huang, 2008. "Interday Forecasting and Intraday Updating of Call Center Arrivals," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 391-410, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shang, Han Lin & Hyndman, Rob.J., 2011. "Nonparametric time series forecasting with dynamic updating," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1310-1324.
    2. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman, 2016. "Grouped functional time series forecasting: An application to age-specific mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Shang, Han Lin, 2013. "Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a nonparametric functional regression model with unknown error density," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 185-198.
    4. Shang, Han Lin, 2017. "Functional time series forecasting with dynamic updating: An application to intraday particulate matter concentration," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 184-200.
    5. Han Shang, 2014. "A survey of functional principal component analysis," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 98(2), pages 121-142, April.
    6. Antoniadis, Anestis & Brossat, Xavier & Cugliari, Jairo & Poggi, Jean-Michel, 2016. "A prediction interval for a function-valued forecast model: Application to load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 939-947.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Functional time series; Functional principal component analysis; Ordinary least squares; Penalized least squares; Ridge regression; Sea surface temperatures; Seasonal time series.;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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