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A goodness-of-fit test for functional time series with applications to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes

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  • Álvarez-Liébana, J.
  • López-Pérez, A.
  • González-Manteiga, W.
  • Febrero-Bande, M.

Abstract

High-frequency financial data can be collected as a sequence of time-ordered curves, such as intraday prices. The Functional Data Analysis (FDA) framework offers a powerful approach to uncover information embedded in the shape of the daily paths, often unavailable from classical statistical methods. A novel goodness-of-fit test for autoregressive Hilbertian (ARH) models is introduced, imposing only the Hilbert-Schmidt condition on the autocorrelation operator. The test statistic is formulated in terms of a Cramér–von Mises norm, with calibration achieved via a wild bootstrap resampling procedure. A simulation study examines the test's finite-sample performance in terms of power and size. Furthermore, a new specification test for diffusion models, including Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, is proposed, illustrated with an application to intraday currency exchange rates. Specifically, a two-stage methodology is proffered: firstly, the relationship between functional samples and their lagged values is assessed using an ARH(1) model; second, under linearity, a functional F-test is conducted.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvarez-Liébana, J. & López-Pérez, A. & González-Manteiga, W. & Febrero-Bande, M., 2025. "A goodness-of-fit test for functional time series with applications to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:203:y:2025:i:c:s0167947324001762
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2024.108092
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