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The information content of implied volatility in agricultural commodity markets

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  • GIOT, Pierre

Abstract

In this paper we compare the incremental information content of lagged implied volatility to GARCH models of conditional volatility for a collection of agricultural commodities traded on the New York Board of Trade. We also assess the relevance of the additional information provided by the implied volatility in a risk management framework. It is first shown that past squared returns only marginally improve the information content provided by the lagged implied volatility. Secondly, Value-at-Risk (VaR) models that rely exclusively on lagged implied volatility perform as well as VaR models where the conditional variance is modelled according to GARCH type processes. These results indicate that the implied volatility for options on future contracts in agricultural commodity markets has a high information content regarding conditional variance and VaR forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • GIOT, Pierre, 2002. "The information content of implied volatility in agricultural commodity markets," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2002038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2002038
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    Keywords

    implied volatility; GARCH; Value-at-Risk; futures; agricultural commodity markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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