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The dynamics of the volatility skew: A Kalman filter approach

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  • Bedendo, Mascia
  • Hodges, Stewart D.

Abstract

Much attention has been devoted to understanding and modeling the dynamics of implied volatility curves and surfaces. This is crucial for both trading, pricing and risk management of option positions. We suggest a simple, yet flexible, model, based on a discrete and linear Kalman filter updating of the volatility skew. From a risk management perspective, we assess whether this model is capable of producing good density forecasts of daily returns on a number of option portfolios. We also compare our model to the sticky-delta and the vega-gamma alternatives. We find that it clearly outperforms both alternatives, given its ability to easily account for movements of different nature in the volatility curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Bedendo, Mascia & Hodges, Stewart D., 2009. "The dynamics of the volatility skew: A Kalman filter approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1156-1165, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:6:p:1156-1165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rama Cont & Jose da Fonseca, 2002. "Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-60.
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    5. Schönbucher, Philpp J., "undated". "A Market Model for Stochastic Implied Volatility," Discussion Paper Serie B 453, University of Bonn, Germany, revised May 1999.
    6. Hibbert, Ann Marie & Daigler, Robert T. & Dupoyet, Brice, 2008. "A behavioral explanation for the negative asymmetric return-volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2254-2266, October.
    7. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George & Tzagkaraki, Emilia, 2008. "Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2401-2411, November.
    8. Sílvia Gonçalves & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "Predictable Dynamics in the S&P 500 Index Options Implied Volatility Surface," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1591-1636, May.
    9. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2007. "Does implied volatility provide any information beyond that captured in model-based volatility forecasts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2535-2549, August.
    10. Deuskar, Prachi & Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2008. "The economic determinants of interest rate option smiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 714-728, May.
    11. Joshua Rosenberg, 1999. "Implied Volatility Functions: A Reprise," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-027, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Si & Zhou, Zhen & Li, Shenghong, 2016. "An efficient estimate and forecast of the implied volatility surface: A nonlinear Kalman filter approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 655-664.
    2. Weinbaum, David, 2010. "Preference heterogeneity and asset prices: An exact solution," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2238-2246, September.
    3. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Charalambous, Chris & Martzoukos, Spiros H., 2010. "Generalized parameter functions for option pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 633-646, March.
    4. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1175-1188, June.
    5. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
    6. Diether W. Beuermann, 2015. "Information and Communications Technology, Agricultural Profitability and Child Labor in Rural Peru," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 988-1005, November.
    7. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Veredas, David, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2733-2746, October.
    8. Cartea, Álvaro & Karyampas, Dimitrios, 2011. "Volatility and covariation of financial assets: A high-frequency analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3319-3334.
    9. Fahlenbrach, Rüdiger & Sandås, Patrik, 2010. "Does information drive trading in option strategies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2370-2385, October.
    10. López, Raquel, 2015. "Do stylized facts of equity-based volatility indices apply to fixed-income volatility indices? Evidence from the US Treasury market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 292-303.
    11. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2012. "Exploring the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the implied volatility smile," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1028-1044.
    12. Michel van der Wel & Sait R. Ozturk & Dick van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface," Advances in Econometrics,in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 127-174 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    13. Yanhui Chen & Kin Lai, 2013. "Examination on the Relationship Between VHSI, HSI and Future Realized Volatility With Kalman Filter," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(2), pages 200-216, December.
    14. Alejandro Bernales & Diether W. Beuermann & Gonzalo Cortazar, 2014. "Thinly traded securities and risk management," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1 Year 20), pages 5-48, June.
    15. Chang, Chuang-Chang & Hsieh, Pei-Fang & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2010. "Information content of options trading volume for future volatility: Evidence from the Taiwan options market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 174-183, January.
    16. repec:spr:eurasi:v:3:y:2013:i:2:d:10.14208_ebr.2013.03.02.005 is not listed on IDEAS

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