IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions: Theory and evidence from the S&P 500 options


  • Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos
  • Skiadopoulos, George


No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos & Skiadopoulos, George, 2004. "A new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions: Theory and evidence from the S&P 500 options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1499-1520, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:28:y:2004:i:7:p:1499-1520

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mark Britten-Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, April.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    4. George Skiadopoulos & Stewart Hodges, 2001. "Simulating the Evolution of the Implied Distribution," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 7(4), pages 497-522.
    5. Matthias Fengler & Wolfgang Härdle & Christophe Villa, 2003. "The Dynamics of Implied Volatilities: A Common Principal Components Approach," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 179-202, October.
    6. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    7. Rama Cont & Jose da Fonseca, 2002. "Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-60.
    8. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    9. Bates, David S, 1991. " The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-1044, July.
    10. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. " Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-320, June.
    11. Coutant, Sophie & Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2001. "Reading PIBOR futures options smiles: The 1997 snap election," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1957-1987, November.
    12. Thierry Ané & Chiraz Labidi, 2001. "Implied volatility surfaces and market activity over time," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 259-275, September.
    13. Bernard Dumas & Jeff Fleming & Robert E. Whaley, 1998. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2059-2106, December.
    14. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
    15. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Buraschi, Andrea & Jackwerth, Jens, 2001. "The Price of a Smile: Hedging and Spanning in Option Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 495-527.
    17. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    18. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "The information content of derivatives for monetary policy: Implied volatilities and probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    20. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    21. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
    22. Wayne Velicer, 1976. "Determining the number of components from the matrix of partial correlations," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 41(3), pages 321-327, September.
    23. Harvey, Campbell R & Whaley, Robert E, 1991. " S&P 100 Index Option Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1251-1261, September.
    24. Bates, David S., 2003. "Empirical option pricing: a retrospection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 387-404.
    25. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-1882, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Boes, Mark-Jan & Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 2007. "The Impact of Overnight Periods on Option Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(02), pages 517-533, June.
    2. Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen & German Molina & Enrique ter Horst, 2014. "A Bayesian Beta Markov Random Field Calibration of the Term Structure of Implied Risk Neutral Densities," Papers 1409.1956,
    3. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2016. "International stock market cointegration under the risk-neutral measure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 243-255.
    4. Thomas Busch, 2008. "Testing the martingale restriction for option implied densities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 61-81, March.
    5. Elyas Elyasiani & Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2015. "Towards a skewness index for the Italian stock market," Department of Economics 0064, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    6. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Paletta, Tommaso & Stanescu, Silvia & Tunaru, Radu, 2016. "An improved method for pricing and hedging long dated American options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 656-666.
    7. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
    8. Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Research Papers 200510, University of Liverpool Management School.
    9. Carol Alexander & Leonardo Nogueira, 2004. "Stochastic Local Volatility," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2008-02, Henley Business School, Reading University, revised Mar 2008.
    10. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
    11. Alexandros Kostakis & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & George Skiadopoulos, 2011. "Market Timing with Option-Implied Distributions: A Forward-Looking Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1231-1249, July.
    12. DeMiguel, Victor & Plyakha, Yuliya & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2013. "Improving Portfolio Selection Using Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(06), pages 1813-1845, December.
    13. Marcos Massaki Abe & Eui Jung Chang & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Density Using Parametric Models: the Case of Brazil," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 5(1), pages 29-39.
    14. Martin Magris & Perttu Barholm & Juho Kanniainen, 2017. "Implied volatility smile dynamics in the presence of jumps," Papers 1711.02925,
    15. Sheri Markose & Amadeo Alentorn, 2005. "Option Pricing and the Implied Tail Index with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 397, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:28:y:2004:i:7:p:1499-1520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.