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Generating Options-Implied Probability Densities to Understand Oil Market Events

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Abstract

We investigate the informational content of options-implied probability density functions (PDFs) for the future price of oil. Using a semiparametric variant of the methodology in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978), we investigate the fit and smoothness of distributions derived from alternative PDF estimation methods, and develop a set of robust summary statistics. Using PDFs estimated around episodes of high geopolitical tensions, oil supply disruptions, and macroeconomic data releases, we explore the extent to which oil price movements are expected or unexpected, and whether agents believe these movements to be persistent or temporary.

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  • Deepa Dhume Datta & Juan M. Londono & Landon J. Ross, 2014. "Generating Options-Implied Probability Densities to Understand Oil Market Events," International Finance Discussion Papers 1122, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1122
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel O. Beltran & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Matteo Iacoviello & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Canlin Li & Juan M. Londono & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Taxonomy of Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility Measures," International Finance Discussion Papers 1216, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Chen, Ren-Raw & Hsieh, Pei-lin & Huang, Jeffrey, 2018. "Crash risk and risk neutral densities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 162-189.
    3. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    5. Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad & Karimli, Tural, 2015. "Brent nefti opsiyonlarından neytral riskli ehtimal paylanmasının əldə olunması [Extracting risk-neutral probability distribution from Brent oil options]," MPRA Paper 65704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.
    7. Yanhong Feng & Xiaolei Wang & Shuanglian Chen & Yanqiong Liu, 2022. "Impact of Oil Financialization on Oil Price Fluctuation: A Perspective of Heterogeneity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2016. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01410093, HAL.
    9. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Geopolitical risk trends and crude oil price predictability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    10. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Risk-neutral moments in the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 583-600.
    12. Mr. Fabio Comelli & Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2016. "To Bet or Not to Bet: Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2016/218, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Nick Gebbia, 2016. "Option-Implied Libor Rate Expectations across Currencies," International Finance Discussion Papers 1182, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Pablo Neudorfer, 2022. "Tail risk in the fossil fuel industry: an option implied analysis around the unburnable carbon news," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 493-511, March.
    16. Yanhong Feng & Dilong Xu & Pierre Failler & Tinghui Li, 2020. "Research on the Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Crude Oil Price Fluctuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-24, August.
    17. Cortés, Lina M. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Retrieving the implicit risk neutral density of WTI options with a semi-nonparametric approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Jingyan Zhang & Jan De Spiegeleer & Wim Schoutens, 2021. "Implied Tail Risk and ESG Ratings," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2019. "Moment spreads in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 598-609.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Options-implied PDFs; futures; options; oil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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