An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997
This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the crawling peg' and target zone ( maxiband') regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchange rate model, our analysis is based on either the risk-neutral PDF or arbitrage-based tests of target zones. The paper one of the first to use options data from an emerging market, finds that target zone credibility was poor prior to February 1996, but improved afterwards. The market anticipated periodic band adjustments, but over time developed greater confidence in the Real. We also test whether devaluation intensities estimated from these option prices can be explained by standard macroeconomic factors.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (212) 998-0860
Fax: (212) 995-4218
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/economics/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991.
"Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models,"
NBER Working Papers
3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," Papers 481, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1998.
"Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 499-547, 04.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, . "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Louis O. Scott, 1992. "The Information Content of Prices in Derivative Security Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 596-625, September.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
- Bodurtha, James N. & Courtadon, Georges R., 1987. "Tests of an American Option Pricing Model on the Foreign Currency Options Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 153-167, June.
- Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 91-115, March.
- Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990.
"The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility,"
NBER Working Papers
3394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
- Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
- Grundy, R.D., 1991. "Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution," Weiss Center Working Papers 11-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Peter A. Abken, 1995. "Using Eurodollar futures options: gauging the market's view of interest rate movements," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Mar, pages 10-30.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Kneafsey, Devin P. & Claessens, Stijn & DEC, 1993. "Forecasting volatility in commodity markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1226, The World Bank.
- Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Reider, Robert L., 1998. "Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-160, February.
- Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October.
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
- Bruce D. Grundy, . "Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution (Reprint 012)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- JosÈ B. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "ERM bandwidths for EMU and after: evidence from foreign exchange options," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 53-89, 04.
- Grundy, Bruce D, 1991. " Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1045-69, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ste:nystbu:99-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Viveca Licata)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.