An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1999
This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through March 1999. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the "crawling peg" and target zone ("maxiband") regimes governing the exchange rate.
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|Date of creation:||2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros. Casado del Alisal, 5-28014 Madrid, Spain.|
Web page: http://www.cemfi.es/
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- Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
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