IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Reserve Option Mechanism as a Stabilizing Policy Tool : Evidence from Exchange Rate Expectations

  • Ahmet Degerli
  • Salih Fendoglu

During the recent era, many emerging market economies have implemented unconventional policy measures to mitigate the effect of large swings in short-term capital flows on domestic business cycles. This paper focuses on a specific unconventional policy tool introduced by the Central Bank of Turkey, the Reserve Option Mechanism (ROM), that in principle contains excessive fluctuations in foreign exchange rate and helps cushion the economy from large swings in external factors. The results suggest that, after the introduction the ROM (i) market expectations are leaned towards a significantly lower volatility or skewness in the USD/TL relative to other emerging market exchange rates; (ii) controlling for a set of domestic and common external factors, the USD/TL expectations have exhibited lower levels of volatility, skewness and kurtosis; (iii) the higher the intensity of ROM (the fraction of ROM-based reserves in total international reserves) the stronger the effect of ROM on exchange rate expectations. Last, we provide evidence that the mechanism acts as an automatic stabilizer of expectations about excessive movements in the exchange rate: the mechanism decreases the sensitivity of expected USD/TL kurtosis to the common external factor (by an estimated decrease of about 85%).

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/PUBLICATIONS/Research/Working+Paperss/2013/13-28
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1328.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1328
Contact details of provider: Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Campa, José Manuel & Chang, Kevin & Refalo, James F, 2000. "An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil’s Real Plan, 1994-1999," CEPR Discussion Papers 2611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
  3. Galati, Gabriele & Melick, William & Micu, Marian, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 982-1011, October.
  4. Bhupinder Bahra, 1997. "Implied risk-neutral probability density functions from option prices: theory and application," Bank of England working papers 66, Bank of England.
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-66, December.
  6. Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Reider, Robert L., 1998. "Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-160, February.
  7. Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," BIS Working Papers 400, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo D., 2013. "Exchange rate intervention in small open economies: The role of risk premium and commodity price shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 424-447.
  11. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
  12. Castrén, Olli, 2005. "Estimating and analysing currency options implied risk-neutral density functions for the largest new EU member states," Working Paper Series 0440, European Central Bank.
  13. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Salih Fendoglu & Mustafa Kilinc & Mehmet Yörükoglu, 2014. "Cross-border portfolio flows and the role of macroprudential policies: experiences from Turkey," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 347-359 Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Co-movements among major European exchange rates: A multivariate time-varying asymmetric approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 105-113.
  16. Halil İbrahim AYDIN & Ahmet DEĞERLİ & Pınar ÖZLÜ, 2010. "Recovering risk-neutral densities from exchange rate options: Evidence from Lira-Dollar options," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 25(291), pages 9-26.
  17. Koray Alper & Hakan Kara & Mehmet Yörükoglu, 2013. "Alternative tools to manage capital flow volatility," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 335-352 Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Castrén, Olli, 2004. "Do options-implied RND functions on G3 currencies move around the times of interventions on the JPY/USD exchange rate?," Working Paper Series 0410, European Central Bank.
  19. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1996. "Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target-Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 726-40, September.
  20. Ermişoğlu, Ergun & Akçelik, Yasin & Oduncu, Arif & Taşkın, Temel, 2013. "The Effects of Additional Monetary Tightening on Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 46615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Erdem Basci & Hakan Kara, 2011. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1108, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  22. Arif Oduncu & Yasin Akcelik & Ergun Ermisoglu, 2013. "Reserve Options Mechanism and FX Volatility," Working Papers 1303, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  23. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Salih Fendoglu & Mustafa Kilinc, 2014. "Macroprudential Policies as Buffer Against Volatile Cross-border Capital Flows," Working Papers 1404, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  24. A. Hakan Kara, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Turkey After the Global Crisis," Working Papers 1217, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  25. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Salih Fendoglu & Mustafa Kilinc, 2014. "Managing Short-Term Capital Flows in New Central Banking: Unconventional Monetary Policy Framework in Turkey," Working Papers 1403, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  26. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  27. repec:spr:pharme:v:4:y:2014:i:1:p:45-69 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Aron Gereben, 2002. "Extracting market expectations from option prices: an application to over-the-counter New Zealand dollar options," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ozlem Ekmekciler Ramalho Rocha)

or (Ilker Cakar)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.