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The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market

  • Wilkens, Sascha
  • Roder, Klaus
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W4F-4KHC37V-2/2/fd93113077f6cb72ffa66bd8c785164b
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Global Finance Journal.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 (September)
    Pages: 50-74

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:50-74
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162

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    7. Charles J. Corrado & Tie Su, 1996. "Skewness And Kurtosis In S&P 500 Index Returns Implied By Option Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 175-192, 06.
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    10. Heaton, Hal, 1986. "Volatilities Implied by Options Premia: A Test of Market Efficiency," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 37-49, February.
    11. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
    12. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    13. Martin Cincibuch & Pavel Bouc, 2001. "Interpretation of Czech FX Options," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/36, Czech National Bank.
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    17. Ederington, Louis & Guan, Wei, 2005. "The information frown in option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1429-1457, June.
    18. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
    19. Davidson, Wallace N. & Kim, Jin Kyoung & Ors, Evren & Szakmary, Andrew, 2001. "Using implied volatility on options to measure the relation between asset returns and variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1245-1269, July.
    20. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2005. "The Implied-Realized Volatility Relation with Jumps in Underlying Asset Prices," Working Papers 1186, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    21. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
    22. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
    23. Beckers, Stan, 1981. "Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 363-381, September.
    24. Federico Bandi & Benoit Perron, 2003. "Long memory and the relation between implied and realized volatility," Econometrics 0305004, EconWPA.
    25. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81.
    26. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Pong, Shiuyan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2004. "Forecasting currency volatility: A comparison of implied volatilities and AR(FI)MA models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2541-2563, October.
    28. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    29. Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 1997. "The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 317-340, December.
    30. Claessen, Holger & Mittnik, Stefan, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    31. Bhupinder Bahra, 1997. "Implied risk-neutral probability density functions from option prices: theory and application," Bank of England working papers 66, Bank of England.
    32. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Information Content of Implied Probability Distributions: Empirical Studies of Japanese Stock Price Index Options," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(3), pages 143-170, November.
    33. Bent Jesper Christensen & Charlotte Strunk Hansen, 2002. "New evidence on the implied-realized volatility relation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 187-205, June.
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    35. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    36. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
    37. Christine A. Brown & David M. Robinson, 2002. "Skewness and Kurtosis Implied by Option Prices: A Correction," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 279-282.
    38. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
    39. Bruce D. Grundy, . "Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution (Reprint 012)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    40. Kyriakos Chourdakis & Elias Tzavalis, 2000. "Option Pricing under Discrete Shifts in Stock Returns," Working Papers 426, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
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