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Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market

  • Holger Claessen
  • Stefan Mittnik

Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors, such as GARCH models, are investigated to determine if they are more appropriate for predicting future return volatility. Employing German DAX-index return data it is found that past returns do not contain useful information beyond the volatility expectations already reflected in option prices. This supports the efficient market hypothesis for the DAX-index options market.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 302-321

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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:8:y:2002:i:3:p:302-321
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