The predictive power of the implied volatility of options traded OTC and on exchanges
This paper investigates the efficiency of stock index options traded over-the-counter (OTC) and on the exchanges in Hong Kong and Japan. Our findings suggest that implied volatility is superior to either historical volatility or a GARCH-type volatility forecast in predicting future volatility in both the OTC and exchange markets. This paper is also one of the first to compare the predictive power of the implied volatility of stock index options traded OTC to that of exchange-traded stock index options. Our evidence suggests that the OTC market is more efficient than the exchanges in Japan, but that the opposite is true in Hong Kong.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 203-214, June.
- Baillie, R.T. & Degennaro, R.P., 1988. "Stock Returns And Volatility," Papers 8803, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Chang, Eric C. & Ren, Jinjuan & Shi, Qi, 2009. "Effects of the volatility smile on exchange settlement practices: The Hong Kong case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 98-112, January.
- Banerjee, Prithviraj S. & Doran, James S. & Peterson, David R., 2007. "Implied volatility and future portfolio returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3183-3199, October.
- Holger Claessen & Stefan Mittnik, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 302-321.
- Claessen, Holger & Mittnik, Stefan, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
- Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
- Schwert, G.W. & Seguin, P.J., 1988. "Heteroskedasticity In Stock Returns," Papers bc_88-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- G. William Schwert & Paul J. Seguin, 1989. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 2956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
- Charlotte Strunk Hansen, 2001. "The relation between implied and realised volatility in the Danish option and equity markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 41(3), pages 197-228.
- Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
- Campa, J.M. & Chang, P.H.K., 1995. "The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options," Papers 95-26, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Jose M. Campa & P. H. Kevin Chang, 1997. "The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options," NBER Working Papers 5974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2007. "Does implied volatility provide any information beyond that captured in model-based volatility forecasts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2535-2549, August.
- Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
- Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
- Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 1999. "Volatility forecasting in the framework of the option expiry cycle," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 73-94.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-528, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)