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The predictive power of the implied volatility of options traded OTC and on exchanges

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  • Yu, Wayne W.
  • Lui, Evans C.K.
  • Wang, Jacqueline W.

Abstract

This paper investigates the efficiency of stock index options traded over-the-counter (OTC) and on the exchanges in Hong Kong and Japan. Our findings suggest that implied volatility is superior to either historical volatility or a GARCH-type volatility forecast in predicting future volatility in both the OTC and exchange markets. This paper is also one of the first to compare the predictive power of the implied volatility of stock index options traded OTC to that of exchange-traded stock index options. Our evidence suggests that the OTC market is more efficient than the exchanges in Japan, but that the opposite is true in Hong Kong.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Wayne W. & Lui, Evans C.K. & Wang, Jacqueline W., 2010. "The predictive power of the implied volatility of options traded OTC and on exchanges," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-11, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:1:p:1-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1175-1188, June.
    2. Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Teng-Ching & Lin, Bing-Huei, 2013. "Predicting volatility using the Markov-switching multifractal model: Evidence from S&P 100 index and equity options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 168-187.
    3. Chen, Carl R. & Diltz, J. David & Huang, Ying & Lung, Peter P., 2011. "Stock and option market divergence in the presence of noisy information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2001-2020, August.
    4. Huisman, Ronald & van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "A new measurement method of investor overconfidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 69-71.
    5. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    6. Ryszard Kokoszczyński & Natalia Nehrebecka & Paweł Sakowski & Paweł Strawiński & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2010. "Option Pricing Models with HF Data – a Comparative Study. The Properties of Black Model with Different Volatility Measures," Working Papers 2010-03, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    7. Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Yu, Peng, 2010. "A multi-horizon comparison of density forecasts for the S&P 500 using index returns and option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2678-2693, November.
    8. Jiang, George J. & Tian, Yisong S., 2010. "Misreaction or misspecification? A re-examination of volatility anomalies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2358-2369, October.
    9. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:848-863 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.

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