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Are implied volatilities more informative? The Brazilian real exchange rate case

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  • Eui Jung Chang
  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak

Abstract

This article examines the relation between dollar-real exchange rate volatility implied in option prices and subsequent realized volatility. It investigates whether implied volatilities contain information about volatility over the remaining life of the option that is not present in past returns. Using Generalized Method of Movements [GMM] estimation consistent with telescoping observations evidence suggests that implied volatilities give superior forecasts of realized volatility if compared with Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH] (p, q) and moving average predictors. Besides, econometric models do not add significant information to that contained in implied volatilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Eui Jung Chang & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Are implied volatilities more informative? The Brazilian real exchange rate case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 569-576.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:7:p:569-576
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100600706758
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Krylova, Elizaveta & Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2009. "Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(5), pages 355-375, September.
    2. Roland Fuss & Ferdinand Mager & Holger Wohlenberg & Lu Zhao, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on implied volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1571-1580.
    3. Tseng-Chan Tseng & Hung-Cheng Lai & Cha-Fei Lin, 2012. "The impact of overnight returns on realized volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 357-364, March.
    4. Ariful Hoque & Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti, 2012. "Modeling moneyness volatility in measuring exchange rate volatility," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(4), pages 365-380, September.

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