IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emffin/v14y2015i2p140-175.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Relationship of Ex-ante and Ex-post Volatility: A Sub-period Analysis of S&P CNX Nifty Index Options

Author

Listed:
  • Imlak Shaikh
  • Puja Padhi

Abstract

In this article, the information content of implied volatility is studied at sub-periods (i.e., pre- and post-crises of 2007–09). The main objective is to judge the predictive power of implied volatility in the pre- and post-crises period, using at-the-money (ATM) non-overlapping monthly implied volatilities of Nifty Index options. A simple ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation is used to analyse the information content of implied volatility in sub-periods. An autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) structure is analysed for the assessment of times series property of ex-ante and ex-post volatility. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to choose the most advantageous forecasting model for predicting the future volatility. The OLS estimation shows that implied volatility is more biased in the pre-crises period. The two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation clearly explains that implied volatility is an unbiased estimate of the future realised volatility. An ARMA (1,1) and ARDL (1,0) is the best model of future volatility estimation. This study explains that for Indian derivative market, volatility estimates based on options are useful for the pricing of derivative instruments and portfolio risk management. JEL Classification: G13, G14, C53

Suggested Citation

  • Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2015. "On the Relationship of Ex-ante and Ex-post Volatility: A Sub-period Analysis of S&P CNX Nifty Index Options," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 140-175, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:140-175
    DOI: 10.1177/0972652715584266
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0972652715584266
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0972652715584266?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ederington, Louis & Guan, Wei, 2005. "The information frown in option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1429-1457, June.
    2. Bent Jesper Christensen & Charlotte Strunk Hansen, 2002. "New evidence on the implied-realized volatility relation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 187-205, June.
    3. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
    4. Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 1999. "Volatility forecasting in the framework of the option expiry cycle," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 73-94.
    5. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. "Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-528, June.
    6. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
    7. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    8. Charlotte Strunk Hansen, 2001. "The relation between implied and realised volatility in the Danish option and equity markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 41(3), pages 197-228, November.
    9. Steven Li & Qianqian Yang, 2009. "The relationship between implied and realized volatility: evidence from the Australian stock index option market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 405-419, May.
    10. Samarakoon, Lalith P., 2011. "Stock market interdependence, contagion, and the U.S. financial crisis: The case of emerging and frontier markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 724-742.
    11. Harvey, Campbell R & Whaley, Robert E, 1991. "S&P 100 Index Option Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1251-1261, September.
    12. Latane, Henry A & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1976. "Standard Deviations of Stock Price Ratios Implied in Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 369-381, May.
    13. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
    14. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    15. Choudhry, Taufiq & Lu, Lin & Peng, Ke, 2007. "Common stochastic trends among Far East stock prices: Effects of the Asian financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 242-261.
    16. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2011. "Financial crises and stock market contagion in a multivariate time-varying asymmetric framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 92-106, February.
    17. Liu, Chunyan & Uchida, Konari & Yang, Yufeng, 2012. "Corporate governance and firm value during the global financial crisis: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 70-80.
    18. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
    19. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    20. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Padhi, Puja, 2012. "Emerging markets and financial crises: Regional, global or isolated shocks?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 24-38.
    21. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
    22. Beckers, Stan, 1981. "Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 363-381, September.
    23. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2006. "On the informational efficiency of S&P500 implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 139-153, August.
    24. George Filis, 2009. "An Analysis between Implied and Realised Volatility in the Greek Derivative Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(3), pages 251-263, September.
    25. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2013. "On the Linkages among Ex-ante and Ex-post Volatility: Evidence from NSE Options Market (India)," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(3), pages 487-505, September.
    2. Puja Padhi & Imlak Shaikh, 2014. "On the relationship of implied, realized and historical volatility: evidence from NSE equity index options," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 915-934, November.
    3. Steven Li & Qianqian Yang, 2009. "The relationship between implied and realized volatility: evidence from the Australian stock index option market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 405-419, May.
    4. Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
    5. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Variance Risk Premia," Finance 0409015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Viteva, Svetlana & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia V. & Campbell, Kevin, 2014. "The forecasting accuracy of implied volatility from ECX carbon options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 475-484.
    7. Murad Samsudin, Najmi Ismail & Mohamad, Azhar & Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad, 2021. "Implied volatility of structured warrants: Emerging market evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 464-479.
    8. Tzang, Shyh-Weir & Hung, Chih-Hsing & Wang, Chou-Wen & Shyu, David So-De, 2011. "Do liquidity and sampling methods matter in constructing volatility indices? Empirical evidence from Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 312-324, April.
    9. Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Teng-Ching & Lin, Bing-Huei, 2013. "Predicting volatility using the Markov-switching multifractal model: Evidence from S&P 100 index and equity options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 168-187.
    10. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    11. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    12. Guan Wang & Pierre Yourougou & Yue Wang, 2012. "Which implied volatility provides the best measure of future volatility?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 93-105, January.
    13. Shu Wing Ho & Alan Lee & Alastair Marsden, 2011. "Use of Bayesian Estimates to determine the Volatility Parameter Input in the Black-Scholes and Binomial Option Pricing Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, December.
    14. Yu, Wayne W. & Lui, Evans C.K. & Wang, Jacqueline W., 2010. "The predictive power of the implied volatility of options traded OTC and on exchanges," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-11, January.
    15. Eui Jung Chang & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Are implied volatilities more informative? The Brazilian real exchange rate case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 569-576.
    16. Dicle, Mehmet F. & Levendis, John, 2020. "Historic risk and implied volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    17. Neely, Christopher J., 2009. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
    18. Zhi Dong & Tien Foo Sing, 2021. "Do Investors Overreact for Property and Financial Service Sectors?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(1), pages 79-123, April.
    19. Tsiaras, Leonidas, 2009. "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-02, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    20. Bentes, Sónia R., 2015. "A comparative analysis of the predictive power of implied volatility indices and GARCH forecasted volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 424(C), pages 105-112.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Implied volatility; realised volatility; ex-ante volatility; ex-post volatility; sub-periods; distributed lag; information content;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:140-175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ifmr.ac.in .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.