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Does implied volatility of currency futures option imply volatility of exchange rates?

  • Wang, Alan T.
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    By investigating currency futures options, this paper provides an alternative economic implication for the result reported by Stein [Overreactions in the options market, Journal of Finance 44 (1989) 1011–1023] that long-maturity options tend to overreact to changes in the implied volatility of short-maturity options. When a GARCH process is assumed for exchange rates, a continuous-time relationship is developed. We provide evidence that implied volatilities may not be the simple average of future expected volatilities. By comparing the term–structure relationship of implied volatilities with the process of the underlying exchange rates, we find that long-maturity options are more consistent with the exchange rates process. In sum, short-maturity options overreact to the dynamics of underlying assets rather than long-maturity options overreacting to short-maturity options.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 374 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 773-782

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:374:y:2007:i:2:p:773-782
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

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    1. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1995. " Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on the Term Structure of Volatilities in Foreign Exchange Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 529-47, June.
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    12. Sanjiv R. Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 1998. "Of Smiles and Smirks: A Term-Structure Perspective," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-024, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    13. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
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    15. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
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