IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01460186.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Rousse

    () (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

  • Benoît Sévi

    () (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes)

Abstract

The weekly release of the U.S. inventory level by the DOE-EIA is known as the market mover in the U.S. oil futures market and to be a significant piece of information for all world oil markets in which the WTI is a price benchmark. We uncover suspicious trading patterns in the WTI futures markets in days when the inventory level is released that are higher than economists' forecasts: there are significantly more orders initiated by buyers in the two hours preceding the official release of the inventory level. We also show a clear drop in the average price of -0.25% ahead of the news release. This finding is consistent with informed trading. We also provide evidence of an asymmetric response of the oil price to the news, and highlight an over-reaction that is partly compensated in the hours following the announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01460186
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2871932
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460186
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460186/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    2. Ron Alquist and Olivier Gervais, 2013. "The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    3. Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.
    4. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    5. Utpal Bhattacharya & Hazem Daouk, 2002. "The World Price of Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 75-108, February.
    6. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    7. Charles Chang & Hazem Daouk & Albert Wang, 2009. "Do investors learn about analyst accuracy? A study of the oil futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 414-429, May.
    8. Derek Bunn, Julien Chevallier, Yannick Le Pen, and Benoit Sevi, 2017. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    9. Berk, Istemi & Rauch, Jannes, 2016. "Regulatory interventions in the US oil and gas sector: How do the stock markets perceive the CFTC's announcements during the 2008 financial crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 337-348.
    10. Nicolae B. Gârleanu & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2015. "Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management," NBER Working Papers 21563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. David M. Reeb & Yuzhao Zhang & Wanli Zhao, 2014. "Insider Trading in Supervised Industries," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(3), pages 529-559.
    12. Arabinda Basistha & Alexander Kurov, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Energy Prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 87-103, January.
    13. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    14. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    15. David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench, 2015. "The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 329-371, February.
    16. Arjun Chatrath & Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander, 2012. "Does the price of crude oil respond to macroeconomic news?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 536-559, June.
    17. Halova Wolfe, Marketa & Rosenman, Robert, 2014. "Bidirectional causality in oil and gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 325-331.
    18. Bu, Hui, 2014. "Effect of inventory announcements on crude oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 485-494.
    19. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    20. Wai‐Man Liu & Emma Schultz & John Swieringa, 2015. "Price Dynamics in Global Crude Oil Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 148-162, February.
    21. Zhang, Hui Jun & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Galbraith, John W., 2016. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: Measuring causality at multiple horizons," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-120.
    22. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    23. Pettit, R Richardson, 1972. "Dividend Announcements, Security Performance, and Capital Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 993-1007, December.
    24. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Insider trading in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
    25. Christopher R. Knittel & Robert S. Pindyck, 2016. "The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 85-110, April.
    26. Marketa W. Halova & Alexander Kurov & Oleg Kucher, 2014. "Noisy Inventory Announcements and Energy Prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(10), pages 911-933, October.
    27. Neil A. Wilmot and Charles F. Mason, 2013. "Jump Processes in the Market for Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    28. Grossman, Sanford J, 1986. "An Analysis of the Role of "Insider Trading" on Futures Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 129-146, April.
    29. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    30. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    31. Georg V. Lehecka & Xiaoyang Wang & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Gone in Ten Minutes: Intraday Evidence of Announcement Effects in the Electronic Corn Futures Market," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 504-526.
    32. Louis Ederington & Jae Ha Lee, 2002. "Who Trades Futures and How: Evidence from the Heating Oil Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 353-374, April.
    33. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    34. Ye, Shiyu & Karali, Berna, 2016. "The informational content of inventory announcements: Intraday evidence from crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 349-364.
    35. Christophe, Stephen E. & Ferri, Michael G. & Hsieh, Jim, 2010. "Informed trading before analyst downgrades: Evidence from short sellers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 85-106, January.
    36. Rosa, Carlo, 2014. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to U.S. monetary policy: Understanding the empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 295-303.
    37. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 300-318, February.
    38. Helyette Geman & V. Nguyen, 2005. "Soybeans Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00144292, HAL.
    39. Bahattin Buyuksahin & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2011. "Do Speculators Drive Crude Oil Futures Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 167-202.
    40. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 117-134, March.
    41. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    42. Blau, Benjamin M. & Wade, Chip, 2012. "Informed or speculative: Short selling analyst recommendations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 14-25.
    43. Robert S. Pindyck, 2004. "Volatility and commodity price dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(11), pages 1029-1047, November.
    44. Orazem, Peter & Baur, Robert F., 1994. "The Rationality and Price Effects of Usda Forecasts of Oranges," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11133, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    45. Bjursell, Johan & Gentle, James E. & Wang, George H.K., 2015. "Inventory announcements, jump dynamics, volatility and trading volume in U.S. energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 336-349.
    46. Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
    47. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2005. "Information Leakage and Market Efficiency," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 417-457.
    48. Phillips, Gordon M & Weiner, Robert J, 1994. "Information and Normal Backwardation as Determinants of Trading Performance: Evidence from the North Sea Oil Forward Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 76-95, January.
    49. Leland, Hayne E, 1992. "Insider Trading: Should It Be Prohibited?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 859-887, August.
    50. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1937 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Chang, Charles & Daouk, Hazem & Wang, Albert, 2008. "Do Investors Learn About Analyst Accuracy?," Working Papers 51158, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    52. Fishe, Raymond P. H. & Robe, Michel A., 2004. "The impact of illegal insider trading in dealer and specialist markets: evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 461-488, March.
    53. Utpal Bhattacharya, 2014. "Insider Trading Controversies: A Literature Review," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 385-403, December.
    54. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    55. Elder, John & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2014. "Price discovery in crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 18-27.
    56. Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Linn, Scott C. & Zhu, Zhen, 2014. "The response of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices to storage change surprises: Fundamental information and the effect of escalating physical gas production," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    57. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1995. "Overreaction, Delayed Reaction, and Contrarian Profits," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 973-993.
    58. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
    59. John, Kose & Lang, Larry H P, 1991. " Insider Trading around Dividend Announcements: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1361-1389, September.
    60. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. " Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-1698, December.
    61. Michaelides, Alexander & Milidonis, Andreas & Nishiotis, George P. & Papakyriakou, Panayiotis, 2015. "The adverse effects of systematic leakage ahead of official sovereign debt rating announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 526-547.
    62. Jarrell, Gregg A & Poulsen, Annette B, 1989. "Stock Trading before the Announcement of Tender Offers: Insider Trading or Market Anticipation?," Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 225-248, Fall.
    63. Scott W. Barnhart, 1989. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Announcements on Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 389-403.
    64. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    65. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
    66. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    67. John Elder, Hong Miao, and Sanjay Ramchander, 2013. "Jumps in Oil Prices: The Role of Economic News," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    68. Scott C. Linn & Zhen Zhu, 2004. "Natural gas prices and the gas storage report: Public news and volatility in energy futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 283-313, March.
    69. Hendershott, Terrence & Livdan, Dmitry & Schürhoff, Norman, 2015. "Are institutions informed about news?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 249-287.
    70. Bernile, Gennaro & Hu, Jianfeng & Tang, Yuehua, 2016. "Can information be locked up? Informed trading ahead of macro-news announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 496-520.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    insider trading; WTI crude oil futures; intraday data; inventory release;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01460186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.