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Taxonomy of Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility Measures

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Abstract

A large number of measures for monitoring risk and uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic and financial outcomes have been proposed in the literature, and these measures are frequently used by market participants, policy makers, and researchers in their analyses. However, risk and uncertainty measures differ across multiple dimensions, including the method of calculation, the underlying outcome (that is, the asset price or macroeconomic variable), and the horizon at which they are calculated. Therefore, in this paper, we review the literature on global risk, uncertainty, and volatility measures drawing on internal and external academic research as well as ongoing monitoring conducted by the Federal Reserve Board?s economics divisions to catalog measures by method of data collection, computation, and subject. We first explore a set of non asset-marketbased measures of risk and uncertainty, including news-based and survey-based uncertainty measures of monetary policy and macroeconomic outcomes. We then turn to asset-market-based measures of risk uncertainty for equity prices, interest rates, currencies, oil prices, and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel O. Beltran & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Matteo Iacoviello & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Canlin Li & Juan M. Londono & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Taxonomy of Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility Measures," International Finance Discussion Papers 1216, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1216
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1216
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1216.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2020. "Global effects of US uncertainty: real and financial shocks on real and financial markets," Working papers 69, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    2. David Altig & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Brent H. Meyer & Nicholas Parker, 2019. "Surveying Business Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Liang, Chin Chia & Troy, Carol & Rouyer, Ellen, 2020. "U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Donadelli, Michael & Lalanne, Marie, 2020. "Sex and “the City”: Financial stress and online pornography consumption," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    5. Ines Buono & Flavia Corneli & Enrica Di Stefano, 2020. "Capital inflows to emerging countries and their sensitivity to the global financial cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1262, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Julius Loermann, 2018. "The Impact of CHF/EUR Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Swiss Exports to the Eurozone: Evidence from a Threshold VAR," FIW Working Paper series 189, FIW, revised Feb 2019.

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    Keywords

    Risk; Uncertainty; Volatility; Monetary policy; Geopolitical risk; Equities; Interest rates; Exchange rates; Commodities; Inflation; Variance risk premium;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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