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Which Parametric Model for Conditional Skewness?

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  • Bruno Feunou
  • Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
  • Roméo Tedongap

Abstract

This paper addresses an existing gap in the developing literature on conditional skewness. We develop a simple procedure to evaluate parametric conditional skewness models. This procedure is based on regressing the realized skewness measures on model-implied conditional skewness values. We find that an asymmetric GARCH-type specification on shape parameters with a skewed generalized error distribution provides the best in-sample fit for the data, as well as reasonable predictions of the realized skewness measure. Our empirical findings imply significant asymmetry with respect to positive and negative news in both conditional asymmetry and kurtosis processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Roméo Tedongap, 2013. "Which Parametric Model for Conditional Skewness?," Staff Working Papers 13-32, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-32
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    Cited by:

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    3. Huang, Tao & Li, Junye, 2019. "Option-Implied variance asymmetry and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 21-36.
    4. Trung H. Le & Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael Markellos, 2023. "Modeling skewness in portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 734-770, June.
    5. Wang, Qingxia & Faff, Robert & Zhu, Min, 2022. "Realized moments and the cross-sectional stock returns around earnings announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 408-427.
    6. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    7. Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2022. "Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 7018-7033, September.
    8. Papantonis, Ioannis & Rompolis, Leonidas & Tzavalis, Elias, 2023. "Improving variance forecasts: The role of Realized Variance features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1221-1237.
    9. Papantonis Ioannis & Rompolis Leonidas S. & Tzavalis Elias & Agapitos Orestis, 2023. "Augmenting the Realized-GARCH: the role of signed-jumps, attenuation-biases and long-memory effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 171-198, April.
    10. León, Ángel & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel, 2021. "The transformed Gram Charlier distribution: Parametric properties and financial risk applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 323-349.
    11. Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2013. "Risk and return in the Tehran stock exchange," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 238-256.
    12. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Trung H. Le, 2024. "Forecasting VaR and ES in emerging markets: The role of time‐varying higher moments," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 402-414, March.
    14. León, Ángel & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel, 2020. "Modeling asset returns under time-varying semi-nonparametric distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    15. Bruno Feunou & Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin & Roméo Tedongap & Lai Xi, 2017. "Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Staff Working Papers 17-58, Bank of Canada.
    16. Feunou, Bruno & Okou, Cédric, 2019. "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility, and Option Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(2), pages 695-727, April.
    17. Fang Liang & Lingshan Du, 2024. "Option pricing with dynamic conditional skewness," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1154-1188, July.
    18. Delis, Manthos D. & Savva, Christos S. & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "The impact of the coronavirus crisis on the market price of risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Zhang, Zehua & Zhao, Ran, 2023. "Good volatility, bad volatility, and the cross section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    20. Le, Trung H., 2020. "Forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall with mixed data sampling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1362-1379.

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    Keywords

    Econometric and statistical methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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