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Dynamics of credit spread moments of European corporate bond indexes

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  • Alizadeh, Amir H.
  • Gabrielsen, Alexandros

Abstract

Traditional quantitative credit risk models assume that changes in credit spreads are normally distributed but empirical evidence shows that they are likely to be skewed, fat-tailed, and change behaviour over time. Not taking into account such characteristics can compromise calculation of loss probabilities, pricing of credit derivatives, and profitability of trading strategies. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the dynamics of higher moments of changes in credit spreads of European corporate bond indexes using extensions of GARCH type models that allow for time-varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis of changes in credit spreads as well as a regime-switching GARCH model which allows for regime shifts in the volatility of changes in credit spreads. Performance evaluation methods are used to assess which model captures the dynamics of observed distribution of the changes in credit spreads, produces superior volatility forecasts and Value-at-Risk estimates, and yields profitable trading strategies. The results presented can have significant implications for risk management, trading activities, and pricing of credit derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Alizadeh, Amir H. & Gabrielsen, Alexandros, 2013. "Dynamics of credit spread moments of European corporate bond indexes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3125-3144.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:3125-3144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.02.030
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandros Gabrielsen & Axel Kirchner & Zhuoshi Liu & Paolo Zagaglia, 2015. "Forecasting Value-At-Risk With Time-Varying Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis In An Exponential Weighted Moving Average Framework," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-29.
    2. Changqing Luo & Mengzhen Li & Zisheng Ouyang, 2016. "An Empirical Study on the Correlation Structure of Credit Spreads based on the Dynamic and Pair Copula Functions," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 284-303, August.
    3. Nicholas Apergis & Alexandros Gabrielsen & Lee A. Smales, 2016. "(Unusual) weather and stock returns—I am not in the mood for mood: further evidence from international markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(1), pages 63-94, February.
    4. repec:spr:annopr:v:262:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-015-1975-5 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit spread; GARCH; Skewness; Kurtosis; Regime switching; VaR;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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