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Volatility forecasting for risk management

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  • Gita Persand

    (Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK)

  • Chris Brooks

    (ISMA Centre, University of Reading, UK)

Abstract

Recent research has suggested that forecast evaluation on the basis of standard statistical loss functions could prefer models which are sub-optimal when used in a practical setting. This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily volatility of several key UK financial time series. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear and GARCH-type models of volatility are compared with forecasts derived from a multivariate approach. The forecasts are evaluated using traditional metrics, such as mean squared error, and also by how adequately they perform in a modern risk management setting. We find that the relative accuracies of the various methods are highly sensitive to the measure used to evaluate them. Such results have implications for any econometric time series forecasts which are subsequently employed in financial decision making. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Gita Persand & Chris Brooks, 2003. "Volatility forecasting for risk management," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:1:p:1-22 DOI: 10.1002/for.841
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1990. "Volatility forecasting without data-snooping," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 399-421, August.
    3. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    4. West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 367-391.
    5. West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August.
    6. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    8. Brooks, C. & Clare, A. D. & Persand, G., 2000. "A word of caution on calculating market-based minimum capital risk requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1557-1574, October.
    9. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    10. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
    11. Huisman, R. & Koedijik, K.G. & Pownall, R.A.J., 1998. "VaR-x: Fat Tails in Financial Risk Management," Papers 98-54, Southern California - School of Business Administration.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    13. Brooks, C. & Henry, O.T. & Persand, G., 1999. "Optimal Hedging and the Value of News," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 717, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Chris Brooks & Gita Persand, 2000. "Value at Risk and Market Crashes," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2000-01, Henley Business School, Reading University.
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