IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/17-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Feunou
  • Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin
  • Roméo Tedongap
  • Lai Xi

Abstract

We decompose total variance into its bad and good components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations using stock and option data from a large cross-section of firms. The total variance risk premium (VRP) represents the premium paid to insure against fluctuations in bad variance (called bad VRP), net of the premium received to compensate for fluctuations in good variance (called good VRP). Bad VRP provides a direct assessment of the degree to which asset downside risk may become extreme, while good VRP proxies for the degree to which asset upside potential may shrink. We find that bad VRP is important economically; in the cross-section, a one-standard-deviation increase is associated with an increase of up to 13% in annualized expected excess returns. Simultaneously going long on stocks with high bad VRP and short on stocks with low bad VRP yields an annualized risk-adjusted expected excess return of 18%. This result remains significant in double-sort strategies and cross-sectional regressions controlling for a host of firm characteristics and exposures to regular and downside risk factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Feunou & Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin & Roméo Tedongap & Lai Xi, 2017. "Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Staff Working Papers 17-58, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:17-58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/swp2017-58.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick GAGLIARDINI & Elisa OSSOLA & Olivier SCAILLET, "undated". "Time-Varying Risk Premium In Large Cross-Sectional Equidity Datasets," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 11-40, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R Jahan-Parvar & Cédric Okou, 2018. "Downside Variance Risk Premium," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 16(3), pages 341-383.
    3. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    4. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    5. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Abstract: Capital Market Equilibrium in a Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 635-635, November.
    6. Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Roméo Tédongap, 2013. "Modeling Market Downside Volatility," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 443-481.
    7. Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2014. "Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 197-225.
    8. Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2013. "Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 46-68.
    9. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Capital market equilibrium in a mean-lower partial moment framework," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 189-200, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:17-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.