IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamics of variance risk premia: A new model for disentangling the price of risk


  • Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.
  • Stentoft, Lars
  • Violante, Francesco


This paper formulates a new dynamic model for the variance risk premium based on a state space representation of a bivariate system for the observable ex-post realized variance and the ex-ante option implied variance expectation. A regime switching structure accommodates for periods of unusually high volatility, heterogeneous dynamics and changes in the dependence between the latent states. The model allows separating the continuous component of the variance risk premium from the impact of jumps on option implied variance expectations. Using options and high frequency returns for the S&P500 index, we explain what is generating return predictability by disentangling the part of the variance risk premium associated with normal sized price fluctuations from that associated with tail events. The latter component predicts to a significant extent, and asymmetrically with respect to their sign, future market return variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars & Violante, Francesco, 2020. "Dynamics of variance risk premia: A new model for disentangling the price of risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 312-334.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:217:y:2020:i:2:p:312-334
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.12.006

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item


    Variance risk premium; Return predictability; Sentiment indicators;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:217:y:2020:i:2:p:312-334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.