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Variance dynamics: Joint evidence from options and high-frequency returns

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  • Wu, Liuren

Abstract

This paper analyzes the S&P 500 index return variance dynamics and the variance risk premium by combining information in variance swap rates constructed from options and quadratic variation estimators constructed from tick data on S&P 500 index futures. Estimation shows that the index return variance jumps. The jump arrival rate is not constant over time, but is proportional to the variance rate level. The variance jumps are not rare events but arrive frequently. Estimation also identifies a strongly negative variance risk premium, the absolute magnitude of which is proportional to the variance rate level.

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  • Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Variance dynamics: Joint evidence from options and high-frequency returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 280-287, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:160:y:2011:i:1:p:280-287
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    5. Andras Fulop & Junye Li & Jun Yu, 2011. "Bayesian Learning of Impacts of Self-Exciting Jumps in Returns and Volatility," Working Papers CoFie-10-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    6. Bondarenko, Oleg, 2014. "Variance trading and market price of variance risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 81-97.
    7. Andras Fulop & Junye Li & Jun Yu, 2012. "Investigating Impacts of Self-Exciting Jumps in Returns and Volatility: A Bayesian Learning Approach," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-264, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars & Violante, Francesco, 2020. "Variance swap payoffs, risk premia and extreme market conditions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 106-124.
    9. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jose Olmo, 2016. "On Setting Day-Ahead Equity Trading Risk Limits: VaR Prediction at Market Close or Open?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Park, Yang-Ho, 2016. "The effects of asymmetric volatility and jumps on the pricing of VIX derivatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 313-328.
    11. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars & Violante, Francesco, 2020. "Dynamics of variance risk premia: A new model for disentangling the price of risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 312-334.
    12. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 28-49.
    13. Byun, Suk Joon & Jeon, Byoung Hyun & Min, Byungsun & Yoon, Sun-Joong, 2015. "The role of the variance premium in Jump-GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 38-56.
    14. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility: A new approach," MPRA Paper 69105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kaeck, Andreas & Alexander, Carol, 2013. "Continuous-time VIX dynamics: On the role of stochastic volatility of volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 46-56.
    16. Yang-Ho Park, 2015. "The Effects of Asymmetric Volatility and Jumps on the Pricing of VIX Derivatives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-71, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Jiling Cao & Xinfeng Ruan & Shu Su & Wenjun Zhang, 2021. "Specification analysis of VXX option pricing models under Lévy processes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1456-1477, September.
    18. Chourdakis, Kyriakos & Dotsis, George, 2011. "Maximum likelihood estimation of non-affine volatility processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 533-545, June.
    19. Ahoniemi, Katja & Lanne, Markku, 2013. "Overnight stock returns and realized volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 592-604.
    20. Jiling Cao & Xinfeng Ruan & Shu Su & Wenjun Zhang, 2020. "Pricing VIX derivatives with infinite‐activity jumps," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 329-354, March.
    21. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Karaman, Mustafa & Mancini, Loriano, 2020. "The term structure of equity and variance risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 204-230.
    22. Slim, Skander, 2016. "On the source of stochastic volatility: Evidence from CAC40 index options during the subprime crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 63-76.

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