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Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility

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  • Masato Ubukata
  • Toshiaki Watanabe

Abstract

This article examines option pricing performance using realized volatilities with or without handling microstructure noise, non-trading hours and large jumps. The dynamics of realized volatility is specified by ARFIMA(X) and HAR(X) models. Main results using put options on the Nikkei 225 index are: (1) ARFIMAX model performs best, (2) the Hansen and Lunde (2005a) adjustment for non-trading hours improves the performance, (3) methods for reducing microstructure noise-induced bias yield better performance, while if the Hansen-Lunde adjustment is used, the other methods are not necessarily needed and (4) the performance is unaffected by removing large jumps from realized volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2013. "Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-273, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd12-273
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    microstructure noise; Nikkei 225 stock index; non-trading hours; option pricing; realized volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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