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Option-implied term structures

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  • Erik Vogt

Abstract

This paper proposes a nonparametric sieve regression framework for pricing the term structure of option spanning portfolios. The framework delivers closed-form, nonparametric option pricing and hedging formulas through basis function expansions that grow with the sample size. Novel confidence intervals quantify term structure estimation uncertainty. The framework is applied to estimating the term structure of variance risk premia and finds that a short-run component dominates market excess return predictability. This finding is inconsistent with existing asset pricing models that seek to explain the variance risk premium?s predictive content.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Vogt, 2014. "Option-implied term structures," Staff Reports 706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:706
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
    2. Baeho Kim & Da‐Hea Kim & Haehean Park, 2020. "Informed options trading on the implied volatility surface: A cross‐sectional approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 776-803, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    variance risk premium; term structures; options; return predictability; nonparametric regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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