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Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications

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  • Segal, Gill
  • Shaliastovich, Ivan
  • Yaron, Amir

Abstract

Does macroeconomic uncertainty increase or decrease aggregate growth and asset prices? To address this question, we decompose aggregate uncertainty into ‘good’ and ‘bad’ volatility components, associated with positive and negative innovations to macroeconomic growth. We document that in line with our theoretical framework, these two uncertainties have opposite impact on aggregate growth and asset prices. Good uncertainty predicts an increase in future economic activity, such as consumption, output, and investment, and is positively related to valuation ratios, while bad uncertainty forecasts a decline in economic growth and depresses asset prices. Further, the market price of risk and equity beta of good uncertainty are positive, while negative for bad uncertainty. Hence, both uncertainty risks contribute positively to risk premia, and help explain the cross-section of expected returns beyond cash flow risk.

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  • Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015. "Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:117:y:2015:i:2:p:369-397
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.05.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Colacito & Eric Ghysels & Jinghan Meng & Wasin Siwasarit, 2016. "Skewness in Expected Macro Fundamentals and the Predictability of Equity Returns: Evidence and Theory," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2069-2109.
    2. Helena Chulià & Jorge M. Uribe, 2018. "“Together forever? Good and bad market volatility shocks and international consumption risk sharing: A tale of a sign”," IREA Working Papers 201809, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2018.
    3. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Asymmetric connectedness on the U.S. stock market: Bad and good volatility spillovers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 55-78.
    4. Vegard Høghaug Larsen, 2017. "Components of Uncertainty," Working Papers No 4/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. repec:eee:dyncon:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:331-355 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:39-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:315-327 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Feunou, Bruno & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad & Okou, Cedric, 2015. "Downside Variance Risk Premium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI & Andrea BASTIANIN & Alessandro MISSALE & Eduardo ROSSI, 2016. "Structural Analysis With Mixed Frequency: Monetary Policy, Uncertainty And Gross Capital Flows," Departmental Working Papers 2016-11, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    10. repec:eee:finana:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:94-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:108-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2016. "News and Uncertainty Shocks," EMF Research Papers 12, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    13. Rehse, Dominik & Riordan, Ryan & Rottke, Nico & Zietz, Joachim, 2018. "The effects of uncertainty on market liquidity: Evidence from Hurricane Sandy," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-024, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    14. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2017. "Amplification effects of news shocks through uncertainty," 2017 Papers pca1251, Job Market Papers.
    15. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2017. "Asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 39-56.
    16. Jozef Barun'ik & Evv{z}en Kov{c}enda, 2018. "Total, asymmetric and frequency connectedness between oil and forex markets," Papers 1805.03980, arXiv.org.
    17. Dew-Becker, Ian & Giglio, Stefano & Le, Anh & Rodriguez, Marius, 2017. "The price of variance risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 225-250.
    18. Donadelli, M. & Jüppner, M. & Riedel, M. & Schlag, C., 2017. "Temperature shocks and welfare costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 331-355.
    19. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-39 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Economic growth; Asset prices; Recursive utility;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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