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Modeling Market Downside Volatility

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Listed:
  • Bruno Feunou
  • Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
  • Roméo Tédongap

Abstract

We propose a new methodology for modeling and estimating time-varying downside risk and upside uncertainty in equity returns and for assessment of risk--return trade-off in financial markets. Using the salient features of the binormal distribution, we explicitly relate downside risk and upside uncertainty to conditional heteroskedasticity and asymmetry through binormal GARCH (BiN-GARCH) model. Based on S&P 500 and international index returns, we find strong empirical support for existence of significant relative downside risk, and robust positive relationship between relative downside risk and conditional mode. Copyright 2013, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Roméo Tédongap, 2013. "Modeling Market Downside Volatility," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 443-481.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:17:y:2013:i:1:p:443-481
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfr024
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015. "Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
    2. Bruno Feunou & Roméo Tédongap, 2012. "A Stochastic Volatility Model With Conditional Skewness," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 576-591, July.
    3. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Asymmetric connectedness on the U.S. stock market: Bad and good volatility spillovers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 55-78.
    4. Cheng, Ai-Ru & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2014. "Risk–return trade-off in the pacific basin equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 123-140.
    5. Giovannetti, Bruno C., 2013. "Asset pricing under quantile utility maximization," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 169-179.
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:39-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Feunou, Bruno & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad & Okou, Cedric, 2015. "Downside Variance Risk Premium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. repec:oup:revfin:v:21:y:2017:i:6:p:2401-2401. is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad & Liu, Hening, 2015. "Measuring Ambiguity Aversion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Roméo Tédongap, 2016. "Which parametric model for conditional skewness?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1237-1271, October.
    11. Gill Segal & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2014. "Good and Bad Uncertainty: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Implications," 2014 Meeting Papers 488, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2017. "Asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 39-56.
    13. Bruno Feunou & Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin & Roméo Tedongap & Lai Xi, 2017. "Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Staff Working Papers 17-58, Bank of Canada.
    14. Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Thomas C. Chiang & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2016. "Downside risk and stock returns: An empirical analysis of the long-run and short-run dynamics from the G-7 Countries," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-001, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    15. Peter, Eckley, 2015. "Measuring economic uncertainty using news-media textual data," MPRA Paper 64874, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 May 2015.
    16. Okou, Cedric & Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & Li, Jingyuan, 2016. "Can Higher-Order Risks Explain the Credit Spread Puzzle?," Working Papers 16-1, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    17. Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2013. "Risk and return in the Tehran stock exchange," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 238-256.

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