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Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

  • Simon Gilchrist
  • John C. Williams

We embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay technology. In the presence of irreversible factor proportions, a mean-preserving spread in the productivity of investment raises aggregate investment, productivity, and output. Increases in uncertainty have important dynamic implications, causing sustained increases in investment and hours and a medium-term expansion in the growth rate of labor productivity.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10446.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Publication status: published as Gilchrist, Simon and John C. Williams. "Investment, Capacity, And Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, v8(1,Jan), 1-27.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10446
Note: ME
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  1. Thomas F. Cooley & Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1994. "Equilibrium business cycles with idle resources and variable capacity utilization," Working Papers 94-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  4. Chao Wei, 2003. "Energy, the Stock Market, and the Putty-Clay Investment Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 311-323, March.
  5. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 1998. "Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 6812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2004. "Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan," NBER Working Papers 10732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  8. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  9. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Computational Appendix to Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Technical Appendices campbell98, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  10. Patrick J. Kehoe & Andrew Atkeson, 1999. "Models of Energy Use: Putty-Putty versus Putty-Clay," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1028-1043, September.
  11. Mark Bagnoli & Ted Bergstrom, 2005. "Log-concave probability and its applications," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 445-469, 08.
  12. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
  13. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DE LA CROIX, David & LICANDRO, Omar, 2006. "Vintage capital," CORE Discussion Papers 2006024, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  14. Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Boucekkine, Raouf & Germain, Marc & Licandro, Omar, 1997. "Replacement Echoes in the Vintage Capital Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 333-348, June.
  16. Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2003. "Idiosyncratic Risk Matters!," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 975-1008, 06.
  17. John V. Leahy & Toni M. Whited, 1995. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," NBER Working Papers 4986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
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